Today the Kosovar Assembly voted unamimously for Independence from Serbia. What does this actually mean for the province is something else entirely. Independence here is entirely symbolic as the EU will be running the Administration, the Courts and the Police Service, with NATO being the Army. Not exactly an "Free, independent and sovereign state"?
Pristina will be able to pass laws and sign treaties but will depend on EU Officals to implement them. The EU mission, when it is up and running, will have sweeping executive powers. It will have the right to veto the elected government if it deviates from the Brussels-approved reform path. It will have the power to intervene directly in Kosovo's internal affairs.
The EU of course are playing these powers down. Saying they will be seldom used, or are for emergencies only. Kosovo can be expected to be ruled like Germany and Japan after World War II for at about five to eight years.
Kosovo will be the EU's first time being an exporter of democratic principles. The EU has of course helped countries in tranisition from Dictatorships (Greece, Portugal, Spain) and from Communism (Estonia, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Lithuania and Poland). Kosovo is different as it is it defiance of international law. United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244 which in the preambulatory clauses states "Reaffirming the commitment of all Member States to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the other States of the region, as set out in the Helsinki Final Act and annex 2"
This leaves Russia in a strong poistion in the UN. It can veto any application by Kosovo to join the UN, it can also block changes to Reslution 1244. Conversely France, the UK and the US can block Russian moves to have the UNSC declare the move illegal. So its stale mate at the UN.
Serbia, immediately disregard the´declaration saying it will not recognise a 'false state' which would be a "satellite state known as Kosovo". Serbia of course has ruled out the use of force, but will use ddiplomatic means to try and bring Kosovo back in.
Serbia remains the main trading partner of Kosovo so if Serbia brings in sanctions then Kosovo could be worse off.
Only time will tell if Kosovo will end up a "Free, independent and sovereign state" or just a failed state.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
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I don't think the EU will be as involved as you think.
ReplyDeleteFirstly, it was the "United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo" or UNMIK that was the decision making body in Kosovo and it was handing over responsibility to institutions in Kosovo.
There was a proposal by the EU for them to oversee the implementation of a UN plan. The would have had veto power but this plan has not been implemented and I don't think it is the plan being adopted by Kosovo now. There were a lot of references to the Ahtisaari plan in the declaration of independence but I can't say what exactly will be implemented