Gender Parity? What about voters choice?

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The Labour Party published its Electoral (Gender Parity) Bill today (See RTÉ for details) which will cut state funding to party who dont put forward a certain percentage of female candidates. From what I see from my expeirence in political parties, that when women put themselevs forward for candidature they invariable get selected, not because women vote for them but because men vote for them! I attended conventions for three electoral areas for the upcoming local elections and a woman did not put herself forward for election.

Its not for lack of support within Fine Gael, there is a strong womens group within Fine Gael and there is a large number of female officers on the various boards in Cork FIne Gael (As well as two female Councillors on Cork City Council) so to me there is very little political opposition to women candidates. The biggest downfall for women candidates is actually the female vote. Women dont vote for women, according to a study I read before Older Men are more likely to vote for women then women are!

Gender quota's wont work, they lead to token women candidates who have no opportunity to get elected. Also bringing in a bill like this challenges how parties select candidates. For example in Fine Gael, it is members in the constituency that get to vote and choose the candidate, this bill will take that power away from locals and put in the hands of head office. Something which hasn't worked to great effect for Fianna Fail.

Any gender parity is a no hoper in my opinion.

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FG Gains a Councillor

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So Cork County Councillor Deirdre Forde (Carrigaline/Harbour Electoral Area) has switched from Fianna Fail to Fine Gael. She has many reasons to do so, but the on that isn't mentioned in the Press Release is her main reason for changing.

In the PR she gives her reasons as follows:

Over the last number of months I have sensed that the current Government were moving in a direction that I was not happy with. The Budget in October was the first time that this really struck me when I saw the attempt to take the medical card off OAPs. Subsequent decisions on education supports for special needs children and the provision of cervical cancer vaccination for teenage girls confirmed for me that the wrong people were being asked to pay the price for a faltering economy.

"Having made numerous attempts to speak to senior Party figures about my concerns it became obvious to me that I was not going to be able to effect the type of change that both I, and others, would have liked to have seen.

But is that really the reason?? No.

The real reason is that Fianna Fail have selected Michéal Martin twin brother (whos name escapes me) to run in the same ward. Cllr Forde felt that he was being goven more help and support by head office then she was. This boils down to her taking these personally and then seeing what way the wind was blowing and jumping ship.

This has actual all been played out in the Cork Eveing Echo over the last few months and I was not surprised that she switched. I am surprised that it took this long! Any way best of luck to Cllr Deirdre Forde and to the other Fine Gael Candidates in that ward Cllr John Collins, Cllr Timothy Lombard, and Mr David O'Byrne.

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Molloy is Gone

Well Roddy Molloy the head of FÁS, and possibly related to Brian Cowen, resigned last night after what is being termed FÁSgate by some. It is scandelous the opperation going on in FÁS.

I also heard a story of how things are done in FÁS today. A friend of mine does quotes in the area for tools for a number of companies and organisations. FÁS is one of these. On average with quotes of this nature in Cork there are only three companies who can supply them, so you average out on 1-in-3 contracts. But he found with FÁS he was getting 1-in-20 which is very odd! He mentioned this to head office who had him try out something. For the next quote he charged Cost price plus VAT. Therefore the cheapest. Did he get it the quote? No. Next time he doubled the prices, he got that one!

There needs to be a route and branch reform of FÁS and its operations so waste like this does not go on.

Of course this really re-opens questions on how good Brian Cowen is at picking people. Our Tániste did not know how many Commissioners there were on the EU Commission and Brian Lenihan making a complete balls of the budget shows that if you have no brains but support Cowen, you will go far!

FG cement gains in new poll

There is a poll in the Irish Times tomorrow and I have been sent the topline figures. I assume it has been carried aout by TNS/MRB which bears out the poll in last months Sunday Business Post

Fianna Fail: 27 (-15)
Fine Gael: 34 (+11)
Labour: 14 (-1)

I'll update this with the other parties when I get the times tomorrow.

Leader satisfaction ratings show a big drop for Brian Cowen plummeting 21% to a satisfaction rating of 26%. Enda Kenny also sees a fall of 2% to 33% while Eamon Gilmore rises 3% to 38%.

Fianna Fail seams to be the big losers from the budget seeing their support drop a massive 15% with Fine Gael beeing the major benifactor. I am looking forward to seeing the numbers on the Green Party to see will they go the same way as the PD's or will people associate them with the Budget. More on this tomorrow

Budget - Still not happy...

So we have had two major(ish) u-turns on the latest budget. One on medical cards, but still 5% of pensioners will lose their medical card and one on the 1% "Lenihan Levy" which means that if you earn €17,540 you don't pay tax but if you earn €17,541 you do as P. O'Neil points out over in Irish Election. I'm still not happy with that as I work in retail so therefore have to work Sundays and public holidays meaning I get overtime and have to pay the tax. I worked it out. On my average wage the Government will get what it will cost me to go to College next year! I agree with the unions that the limit should be set at €22,000.

But now attention is moving on to the cuts in Education and to a lesser extent Social Welfare. Will the Government u-turn on these I doubt. Schools look like they won't re-open in January due to health and safety concerns. 16 yr olds lose their disability benefit (to save 0.07% of the departmental budget!!!!!!). Lenihan has targetted the old, the sick and the young!

This PR Budget, has blown up in their faces! They would be better off re-writing or better yet Lenihan and Harney resigning.

You could add Mary Coughlan to that list as she has shown how useless she is in her current post as Tánasite. What an embarrassment to Brian Cowen this government must be, which is ultimately a reflection on him as he appointed them. The Greens don't come out much better with Mary White trying to claim that the Greens were going to pull out over the Medical Card, they weren't! The gainers from this have been Labour, Fine Gael, Sinn Fein and Independents, especially Finian McGrath and newly indpendent Joe Behan. I think next years local's are a near dead cert loss for Fianna Fail over the Budget.

I do apologise for the incoherency of this post, but my mind is frazzled from last night

Do the Government want to fall? - Newsvine

I have written an article over on Newsvine on this. I have reproduced it below.

The Governments decision to scrap automatic Medical Cards for the over-70's is still reverberating around the News websites and the papers letters pages. I have heard one theory on why the Government is not backing down on this issue despite the disquiet on the backbenches and with the coalition partners. Do they want the Government to fall?

This is my fathers theory. Basically Fianna Fail were not especting to win the General Election last year. So now they are stuck with a financial mess that they walked us into and have no Idea how to get us out of it. So the only solution is to lose a vote on the Social Welfare Bill and force a General Election. But will this happen?

A number of Government TD's have come out against the proposals and a the Green's are "concerned" over it, but will they vote against the Government? I have my doubts on the majority of those ho have expressed concern actually voting against but I believe that three could, Noel O'Flynn from Cork North Central, Tom Kitt from Dublin South and Jim McDaid from Donegal North East. The Governments majority of three votes is already reduced due to the resignation of Joe Behan from Wicklow from Fianna Fáil. The support of the four independents, especially Finian McGrath, Dublin North Central, Jackie Healy-Rae, Kerry South and Michael Lowry, Tipperary North is also in doubt.

If the independents vote against this bill, amotion of no confidence would have to be put before the Dáil or the Taoiseach can ask the President to dissolve the Oireachtas and call an election. The question is what will happen?

Enda's Speech

Below is Enda's Speech that he has given in response to Budget 2009. I must say I agree with it whole heartedly!

Yesterday's budget was disgraceful in what it contained. It was deplorable in what it did not contain. And it was fascinating in the response it created. Never in my political life have I seen such a universal rejection of a budget. One by one the statements came out.

IBEC condemned the budget. ISME condemned the budget. The ICTU condemned the budget. Siptu, Aer Lingus, Ryanair, ASH, Hospital Consultants, The Irish Hotels Federation, Focus Ireland, Barnardos --- every last one of them criticised your budget. Companies, unions and interest-groups who have never before agreed, found themselves unified in universal and total rejection of a budget.

I couldn't believe that not one single agency, organisation, company or union had anything positive to say. Then one positive appeared. Just one enthusiastic response. One single, solitary organisation that welcomed the budget. It was the Construction Industry Federation.
It is good to see that you are at least consistent. In good times and bad you keep one thing constant; you may disappoint the nation, but you never disappoint the construction industry.

This government has been in power for more than ten long years. This government has claimed credit for every day that the sun shone. The sun stopped shining a long time ago, but the government was too lazy to get out of its deckchair. Too lazy. Too stale. Too arrogant. Too out of touch with the pressured lives of the mortgaged poor.

And yesterday --- yesterday, the Minister for Finance, having already likened himself to the American President who dragged his nation out of a Depression, went even further in his hubris, in his presumption, in his out-of-touch impertinence. He called for patriotism.
Patriotism. Minister, Taoiseach, Tánaiste. Instead of spending the next few days spinning this disaster to media, you should try meeting some of the people you've impoverished and punished and try telling these exhausted, frazzled men and women about the 'patriotic' action they're taking today in paying for your outrageous, reckless mistakes.

I can promise you you'll get a two-word answer from them. It's very easy for a Government that stopped listening to reality a long time ago to talk about patriotism in here. But march your high-flown words out there to the real world and you'll quickly find your discounted brand of patriotism rejected. With heavy losses.

Because the people of this nation know how badly they have been served. They know the Taoiseach and the government he struggles to lead have achieved the unbelievable - they have produced disaster out of success. They have - for the first time in the history of the state - reversed progress and condemned hardworking committed people to a lower living standard than their parents and grandparents enjoyed. That's some achievement, Taoiseach. That's some achievement, Minister.

Taoiseach, you schmoozed your way through the last four budgets - dispensing gifts of government expenditure to all and sundry, without regard to cost or consequence.

Way back in May, when you were still claiming that the fundamentals of the economy were sound - what planet were you on? - way back then, I asked you what your economic rescue plan was. You said we weren't facing Armageddon, when that clearly was what we were facing. You went on holidays. I kept asking. You came back and I kept asking. You eventually said that the plan would be revealed in the budget.

Yesterday's budget revealed no plan. Yesterday's budget fixed no fundamental problems
Yesterday's budget ensured no future. Yesterday's pick-and-mix punishment to a hardworking nation is best summed up by this morning's headline, Taoiseach. This one.

ALL PAIN BUT NO GAIN.

This is a desperate budget, introduced by a desperate government. This is panic, not policy. This is denial, not direction. The government has tried to hide its miserable performance behind the international banking crisis. It won't work, because it's not true and the people know it's not true. The international banking crisis has accelerated the decline in the Irish economy. But the decline was well underway long before the banks got into trouble.

Here are the facts, Taoiseach. Although I know you don't like dealing in facts.

- 50,000 people joined the dole queues this year - the first year of your leadership. 100,000 more will join those dismal queues next year.
- Businesses the length and breadth of this country are fighting for survival - and, as the foreclosure figures this week proved - many of them are not succeeding.
- Couples whose dream was to own their own home are now paying more for a home worth hundreds of thousands less than they paid for it.

And what did you do for those couples? You slapped a 1% levy on every bit of their shrinking incomes. You raised VAT. You increased the price of petrol so that, last night, lines of cars were drawn up outside every garage as hard-pressed workers tried to fill the tanks of their cars before that extra cost came in. You raised their motor tax. You cut what they could reclaim on their medical expenses. You added a tenner to every airplane ticket they buy. You hiked hospital charges to make it more difficult for them to bring their sick child to A&E. You reduced their mortgage relief. You reduced the relief on money they're trying to put into their pensions.

This is nothing less, A Cathaoirleach, than a declaration of war on the middle classes. That's what it is. War on the middle classes.

But it's more than war on the middle classes. It's war on the future. Take education. As a former teacher, my view of education is that it's about teaching our children not just to learn, but to think. Many parents are doing a lot of thinking today. Thinking about how they're going to pay the new third-level registration fees for their children. Yes, the rich will be fine.

But the hardpressed middle classes, the even harder-pressed less well off, will find it harder and harder now to send their children to university. So much for the claims that Ireland's future was as a knowledge economy. Like all Fianna Fail claims, it's not worth the paper it was written on. It's an election-winner, and then the people who entrusted their hopes and dreams and the future of their children to Fianna Fail find that they have to find more money, out of a diminished income, and that they're being told to think of it as patriotism.

Patriotism has been described as the last refuge of the scoundrel. Never has that statement been more true. Yesterday, my colleague, Richard Bruton, described the Budget as hitting "any family and every family, any business and every business."

Richard Bruton is right. Just as he was right, down through recent months and years, when he highlighted:

- the failure to manage soaring government expenditure;
- the failure to reform the public sector even see the need for reform,
- the danger of building spending programmes on the back of temporary tax windfalls from an overheating property market,
- the failure to take hard decisions.

Richard Bruton was not the only economic expert warning of disaster. Similar warnings came from the IMF; the OECD, the ESRI, the Central Bank. They all highlighted the fundamental structural instability of an economy built on the property market and little else. They all pointed to our over-dependence on the jobs and the one off taxes coming from construction.

The Taoiseach and his party (and his Coalition colleagues) wouldn't listen. They were doing laps of honour for the departure of Bertie Ahern and the arrival of Brian Cowen, when their primary duty was to manage the finances and security of this country for the benefit of all.

They did the laps of honour really well. (Fianna Fail will cherish the recordings of Brian Cowen singing for years to come.) They did everything else really badly. Or not at all. The end result is that taxpayers are punch drunk from project failure, from appalling, preventable waste, and from public service underperformance.

And it is not as if - even now - this has been stopped. The recent C&AG Report highlighted ludicrous waste in the HSE and in the Department of Justice (where hundred of Garda cars purchased in 2006 were left idle through 2007). Time and time again, Fine Gael has pointed to the obscene waste of public money in projects such as PPARS, e-voting, the Terracotta Army of mini managers in the HSE.

The HSE of course has been the Holy of Holies for this government. The HSE was the organisation that would break the mould of the inefficient health board system. (Just as tax cuts would break the mould of the previous recession. Minister Harney has the unique distinction of having built her political career on a narrow set of ruthlessly-pursued objectives. And the unique distinction of sitting idly by while every one of those was disassembled by a Government in which she sits.)

The HSE was set up at an unspeakable cost in reports from management consultants. And that goes on to this very day. It was set up with a structure no management consultant would ever have recommended - a highly paid kitchen cabinet to insulate the CEO from painful realities.

From the outset, it failed and failed miserably. It failed on the front line, where patients - particularly women - died as a result of incompetence. Women given false hope and false all-clears. Women at the heart of loving families who will never get over the tragedy visited on them by a system supposed to serve them. Women who believed in Mary Harney's promises and in Professor Drum's claims. God love those women. God love those families.

They didn't know the chaos, the over-populated chaos which had replaced the old health board system. They didn't know the HSE had more PR people to the square inch than stitches in a wound. They didn't know that the preservation of managers was the hidden mission of the health service under this government.

They're not around, those women whose death was hastened by HSE failure; they're not around to see this Government suddenly decide that they have a terra cotta army of irrelevant managers who must now be paid to go away. No real radical action to make the HSE perform. Just pay off some of the people who shouldn't have been there for the last several years.

No parent ever carried their desperately sick child into the saying.... "quick... for God sake ...someone.. get me a manager." No son or daughter, watching their desperately ill eighty year old mother on a trolley for days, ever wanted one of the terra cotta army of managers this government left in place within the HSE.

They wanted care. Concern. Comfort. They didn't get it. And now, they're being told that some of the money that's being taken out of their back pocket is going to pay off people who should never have been in the HSE in the first place.

At the same time, because of this Budget's doubling of the hospital charge, more and more parents are, this winter, going to look at their feverish child wondering... is it just a rash... or is it strep...... or could it be the start of meningitis? Should we go to A&E? Can we afford to go to A&E?

But then, Professor Drumm says too many people go to A&E in the first place. This man, who has presided over serial disaster, has a lot in common with this government. He never listens.
He never takes the blame. He always protects the system against those it's supposed to serve.

Perhaps because they share so much, this government has taken his figures and his views and disincentivised parents from getting the help their children need. A sorry day for a government.
A sorry day for families.

Because it says that this government is too busy mis-managing an economy to take account of the people that economy is supposed to support. The simple measure of the government's abject performance is that we are provably in a far worse place than many of our European neighbours. No country has been immune to the Banking crisis - but when the international financial tsunami broke - we were already up to our necks in a flood of the government's making. No other country has been so apathetic, so stale, so lazy in its response to the crisis.

In August, when it happened, the Spanish prime minister abandoned his holidays, instructed his ministers to do likewise, and went to work. (This was when Brian Cowen was failing to sink putts in the west of Ireland.) As a result, Spain is not in a recession. It's weathering tough times. It's weathering them with action, with innovation, with realism. But it's not in a recession.

Ireland is in a dire recession, and yesterday's Budget offered nothing in the way of light at the end of the tunnel. After the Budget, the people of this country know the promises that persuaded them to return Fianna Fail to power were an overdraft the people would have to pay back. With interest.

They know that they are poorer, right now. And will be poorer in every week of every month ahead. Not theoretically poorer. Really poorer. Poorer in a way that will hurt.

Because of this government's war on the middle classes, an ordinary PAYE worker taking home 50,000 a year loses one thousand of their income. Directly. And then faces a rake of extra costs and hidden taxes draining away at their income.
If they're lucky enough to keep their income and their job.

The people of this nation have boundless courage and an unequalled capacity to work. But this morning, they will read the details of a Budget that promises them a lowered standard of living. A seriously lowered standard of living. Some of them will be tipped into poverty. Nothing corrodes a family as does poverty brought about by circumstances they can't control.

The new income levies are precisely that. They are crude in their design and impact. Once upon a time, before they caused us major problems, we levied the banks. Now that the banks have caused us enormous problems, this government doesn't levy them at all: instead, this government slaps a levy on the mortgaged poor. This government rewards initiative, commitment and hard word by a crude and open theft of the worker's hard-earned cash.

Now, in fairness, I have to acknowledge that this government has its strengths. Well, maybe I shouldn't use the plural. This government has one strength. It's good at spin.

It was spinning faster than a child's top last night. Particularly about Social Welfare. Mary Hanafin's department was the only one experiencing no cuts. Because it's the department into whose care will fall the people who lose their jobs as a result of this Budget or who are tipped into poverty by it.

Now, set aside the spin and taste the reality. The reality is that for those on social welfare, the increases are likely to be less than the rate of inflation in 2009. The pensioners who get an extra Euro a day - wow - will see the value of that single Euro go down the tubes as the benefit of the medical card for over seventies gets means tested. They have cut 250,000 hours of home help. The unemployed will get reduced benefits - Job Seekers Benefits have been hacked back.

All this has been done under the spin of "No cutbacks in the funding doing to Mary Hanafin," in the hope that no-one would notice the reality, which is that the weak and vulnerable are continuing to suffer.

Well, I have noticed. I will lead the Opposition in a relentless battle on their behalf. This Budget is all about taking back. Taking back from the decent diligent people who carry no responsibility for the disaster this Government has failed to avert. We have cutbacks in medical care provision and increased A&E charges. Families in Dublin will pay an additional €20,000 per year for long-term nursing home care of their elderly relatives.

(Does anybody remember the Fair Deal scheme that was going to make long-term care of the elderly accessible and anxiety free? If you do, just remind yourself of this Government's mantra: Give a thing, take it back...)

This nation faces a cut in direct front line services in education, an actual increase in class sizes. While the government works out how to bail out the banks, parents are continually asked to bail out national schools - whether they can afford it or not. It's a tax on parents - who are already hard pressed by rising food and fuel prices and economic uncertainty. (Does anybody remember the promises, in Education, of Micheál Martin and Noel Dempsey? Give a thing, take it back...)

For families, this Budget is a double-edged sword. The pain starts here and now. The real suffering will be felt six months down the road.

For businesses, it's the same double-edged sword. Rises in car tax, petrol tax, travel tax, rises in capital gains tax and the prospect of more to come next year affect every citizen in this nation and every business, likewise.

Business is at the heart of Irish society. It drives and shapes and innovates. We have produced some of the most innovative companies in new business areas and ones that have transformed traditional industries. For business, the government's key role is to manage the economic context. It didn't.

It distanced itself from its own responsibilities. Let me give you just one example. The government established the National Competitiveness Council - and then ignored its reports. The mired businesses in regulation and red tape. They failed to drive competition into public transport or energy provision. They failed to deliver broadband. There are retail businesses in every town in Ireland that will simply close before the next budget. Every one of those closures will be a little tragedy for an individual, a family, a community.

They'll close because they are crippled by increased government charges and because their cash flow will be hit by changing the payment dates for corporate tax in 2009 - spending tax for 2010 in 2009.

The sector which has already brought businesses to their knees is now in a bizarre partnership with this government. And so the Budget made no mention of the strong active regulation of the banking sector needed to protect the public interest.

This budget was borne out of a failure to take responsibility and an avoidance of blame. It emerges from a continued commitment to vested interests like the construction industry and the banks.



It may well push the economy from recession into depression. Fundamentally the budget is about raising taxes, anywhere and everywhere the Department of Finance could think of. It breaks basic economic rules:

- It continues to take money out of the economy rather than get better value for money already being spent.
- It commits us to massive borrowing - for day to day expenditure. A crucial economic error.
- It is horrifyingly over-optimistic for the years ahead.
- It makes no effort to reform a broken system.

Instead, it does U-turns. Panic instead of policy. U-turns on capital gains tax, u-turns on the medical card for the over 70s. And the signal of more U-turns next year: they will tax child benefit - a policy successive governments have opposed for decades.

This Budget is a portent of disaster. Despite the advance claims that the Government would take tough decisions, they haven't. Instead, we're promised more consultative committees. Without change at the heart of the economy change we simply won't get back on a road to prosperity. We will not achieve anything if we simply take an axe to government spending without thought for the consequence. If we just play a numbers game.

21st Century Ireland needs 21st Century government - not the tarnished and jaded approaches of the last century. That's why Fine Gael has proposed to:

- Freeze spending for 2009 to 2008 levels, with the exception of social welfare.
- Find nominal savings of 3% in each department. We have to freeze public sector pay for 2009 - we all have to feel the pain.
- Levy a fair charge on the banks for the Guarantee that's kept them in business.
- Put in place a redundancy programme for 5,000 civil servants.

We also need to spend to protect those at most risk from the downside of the recession. In our plans, we didn't set out to kid ourselves or anybody else, as the Minister for Finance did yesterday. He spoke of "Retrofitting homes" when in fact he was retrofitting reality. Yesterday was a brazen exercise in economic and political revisionism.

The reality is that for an easy political ride, this Government mortgaged the country to the builders and the developers and the speculators, creating a new elite, and now they demand that the hardworking Irish taxpayer bail them out.

And the Minister has a name for it. He calls it patriotism. Sir, this pointless punishment of the undeserving mortgaged poor is not patriotism. It is a war on the middle classes, a war on business and a failure to protect the vulnerable.

The Budget is no solution to the dire consequences of your Government's bored, stale and frankly irresponsible failure to manage this economy over the past decade. It is a profoundly shameful shoring up of failure at the expense of the people of the nation.

I'll post more on the budget later..

No to Fees!

Today I witnessed, from work, part of the protest in Cork against the reintroduction of third-level fees. According to the Evening Echo story 6,000 students took part in the protest. Strangely enough on the same day, the Irish Universities Association has been outlining its case for the reintroduction of third-level college fees before the Oireachtas education committee. Good timing on behalf of the students!

My first involvement with student politics was on a similar, but smaller, march against fees back with I was a first year student in UCC, which was five years ago now. I am feeling old now! Hopefully fees will not be reintroduced. But well done to all involved on the protest!

Would Libertas please make up its mind!

I'm fed up with news stories like this one from RTÉ.ie this morning, 'Libertas may run candidates for Europe'. This story gets trotted out every now and then but nothing ever happens with it. There is no talk of registering as a political party or anything like that, as of yet.

The Euro's are only eight months away and any political party (new or old) would basically want to be picking there candidates this month or next so that after Christmas there is a straight run from the new Year to the election.

The next election might also see the first elections for trans-European political parties operating under there own banner, including Newropeans and Europe – Democracy – Esperanto, neither of which seam to be running candidates in Ireland.

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Related Posts:
Newropeans, A new pan European Political Party

Another opinion poll....

This time Ireland! Its an interesting one too.

The Party Breakdown is as follows

Fianna Fail 36% (down 4)
Fine Gael 28% (up 3)
Labour 9% (down 1)
Sinn Fein 9% (down 1)
Greens 7% (no change)
PD's 3% (up 1)

(June poll available here in PDF)

In another question in the poll 50% of people are not confident that the government can get the economy out of the current downturn.

Its nice to see FG up and FF down below the 40% (the polled 42% at the last General Election), also these polls are leading us into the local and european elections next year.

The PD's being up is a bit strange considering while the poll was being carried out, the leadership decided they were not politically viable. Then again the fact the PD's were in the media a lot over the grealish debacle raised their profile. But where will that 3% go is the question on everyone's lips?

More:
RTÉ Story - Poll shows fall in support for Fianna Fáil
Sunday Business Post - Sharp fall in support for Fianna Fáil as economy slumps
Irish Election - Fianna Fail Down in Business Post Poll

"Progressive Democrats is no longer politically viable"

Well a meeting of the PD Parliamentary Party (all four of them) ended recently and have decided according to the Party Leader, Senator Ciaran Cannon said:

“It is the opinion of the parliamentary party that the Progressive Democrats is no longer politically viable.”

Source (Breakingnews.ie)

It is sad in one way that the party that tried to break the mold in Irish Politics when it was established by Des O'Malley back in 1985 (the party is as old as me). He did have good ideas and stood for his ideals. I also had a grudging respect for Michael McDowell who was an excellent politician and minister.

I suppose the demise of the PD's cant be bad for any party really as their will be less competition for votes at the election next year, but who will gain from it? Fianna Fail look set to gain initially with Grealish and his cohort of councillors heading for them but will the voters agree with that decision and might not vote for Fianna Fail but one of the other parties. Only time will tell.

May Politics Survey

So from Today I am starting a monthly survey on Irish Politics!

It can be taken here!

Please leave suggestions for next months survey either as a comment here or in the comment section of the Survey!

New Cabinet: Who's Up? Who's Down? Who hasn't Moved?

Yesterday I posted about the two free poistions on Cabinet, well none of the Junior Ministers I mentioned moved up. Tom Kitt did move back to the backbenches though! Typical, I mention a prediction on this site and the opposite happens!

The new Ministers are Batt O'Keefe, TD for Cork South West, who becomes Minister for Education, he previously served as Minister for Housing and Urban Renewal. The other is Brendan Smith TD for Cavan-Monaghan, who becomes Agriculture Minister having been Minister of State at the Department of Children since 2007.

Mary Coughlan moves from Agriculture to Enterprise, Trade and Emplyoment as well as becoming Tánaiste. She is seen as a key Biffo ally. She is the second female Tánaiste in the history of the state. The first being Mary Harney who in 1997 held these two exact posts in cabinet.

Brian Lenihan becomes Finance Minister, arguably the most powerful post in the land. He was previously the MInister for Justice. Another Biffo ally. Recently brough up to full cabinet after the last General Election, he was previously the 'super' junior Minister for Children. A promotion was in offing, it was down between him and Coughlan for this post with Martin being an outside bet

Dermot Ahern moves from Foreign Affairs to Justice. This is an interesting move, but I dont think we will see Civil Unions any faster under this Ahern. He proved to be an excellent Foreign Affairs Minister, but Justice should be an interesting challenge for the Soliciter.

Martin Cullen gets Arts, Sport & Tourism have previously serving as Social & Family Affairs. Cullen is a former PD'er, and has served in a number of cabinet positions since 1997.

Mary Hanafin moves from Education to Social & Family Affairs. Hanafin got a lot of stick for not supporting ABA education for children with Autism, will she do better here?

Mícheál Martin moves from Enterprise to Foreign Affairs. Another surprise move for the Minister most remembered for the Smoking ban. An interesting poistion, the question is wil the foreign diplomats understand his Cork accent when he gets annoyed.

Pat Carey becomes government chief whip, this is a promotion from the back benches. He was serving as Minister of State at the Department of Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs (with special responsibility for Drugs Strategy and Community Affairs).

Noel Dempsey (Transport), Éamon Ó Cuív (Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs), Willie O'Dea (Defence), Mary Harney (Health), John Gormley (Environment, Heritage & Local Government) and Eamon Ryan (Communications, Energy & Natural Resources ) all stay in situ. Which is a pity has Harney should have gone.

So what do ye think of the new cabinet?

Two Free Places on The Cabinet, But Who Will Get The Nod?

This first appeared on the Political Gay blog over on GayCork

So Seamus Brennan has told BIFFO that he will not serve in the next Cabinet due to illness. So who will get the nod from Cowen?

The odds are on one of the Junior Ministers in my opinon.

So who could come up?

Conor Lenihan, yes he is related to Brian, he could be brought up to the cabinet, he is currently Minister of State at the Department of Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs, the Department of Education and Science and the Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform (with special responsibility for Integration Policy). He is a noted politician on the rise, but the "kebab" comment could hold him back.

Seán Haughey could also get in. He is curently Minister of State at the Department of Education and Science and the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment (with special responsibility for Lifelong Learning, Youth Work and School Transport). He is Charlie's son, so that could be a hinderance and I think BIFFO will want a break from people associated with corruption, even it is was his father.

Dick Roche, who is currently Minister of State at the Department of Foreign Affairs (with special responsibility for European Affairs), could be re-appointed to the Cabinet. He was Minister for the Environment, Heritage & Local Government, but his last act as Minister there, allowing the work to go ahead at Tara, might hold him back.

Tom Kitt, the Government Chief Whip, Minister of State at the Department of the Taoiseach and Minister of State at the Department of Defence, could also get the nod. He obviously was involved in getting Beverly back in party and returning Ned O'Keeffe to the party.

Of course BIFFO might ignore these completely and pick someone from the Back Benches.

I dont see the Greens moving anywhere, and Harney for the good of the PD's should go but I doubt she will.

I will hopefully post tonight on the new cabinet. Otherwise you will have to wait till tomorrow!

The Next Cabinet

I found this on diarmydotnet via PoliticsinIreland. It is an interesting post on what the cabinet could like like after May 6th. I have reproduced it below.

Taoiseach: Brian Cowen
Tánaiste: Brian Lenihan

Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries & Food: Billy Kelliher
Minister for Arts, Sports & Tourism: Trevor Sargent (Greens)
Minister for Communications & Technology: Conor Lenihan (New Portfolio)
Minister for Community, Rural & Gaeltacht Affairs: Eamon Ó Cuív
Minister for Defence: Willie O’Dea
Minister for Education & Science: Mary Hanifin
Minister for Energy & Natural Resources: Eamonn Ryan (Greens)
Minister for Enterprise, Trade & Employment: Micheál Martin
Minister for the Environment & Local Government: John Gormley (Greens)
Minister for Finance: Brian Lenihan
Minister for Foreign Affairs: Dermot Ahern
Minister for Heritage & Culture: Seán Haughey (New Potfolio)
Minister for Health & Children: Dr. James Reilly (Poached from Fine Gael)
Minister for Justice, Equality & Law Reform: Mary Couglan
Minister for Social & Family Affairs: Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher
Minister for Transport & the Marine: Noel Dempsey

I agree with Diarmy that Séamus Brennan, Mary Harney and Martin Cullen will all lose their cabinet poistions, but may get Junior Postings. I very much doubt the Dr Reilly will cross the floor to take up health, so someone else will have to take the poision chalice. One other issue is the number of Portfolio's the constitution states thats "The Government shall consist of not less than seven and not more than fifteen members" Article 28.1, this Cabinet has 16 excluding the Taoisheach.

Dr Patrick Hillery, 1923-2008

RTÉ are reporting the death earlier today of the Former President of Ireland Dr. Patrick Hillary. Dr. Hillary had a long history in Irish politics, having first been elected to the Dáil in 1951. He served as Minister for Education (1959-1965), Minister for Industry & Commerce (1965-1966), Minister for Labour (1966-1969) and Minister for External Affairs (1969-1973). In 1973 he was appointed Ireland's first European Commissioner, serving until 1976 when he became President of Ireland following Cearbhall Ó Dálaigh resignation. He served in that post until 1990.

It is always sad when a former head of state dies. Though I was not alive for most of his career and was 5 years old when he stepped down as President.

There will be a State Funeral.

Dr Patrick J. Hillery
1923 - 2008
RIP

Interesting Facebook Groups

Facebook, Facebook, Facebook, thats what its all about nowadays. Bebo? Thats for kids! Or as someone said top me, "its the preteens version"!


So heres some interesting facebook groups in no Particular order.

Vote Yes to the Reform Treaty

A group for the supporters of the Lisbon Treaty. Have a sconce. I post interesting stuff there when I find it!

Resign, Mr Ahern

This group was set up by Gavin of Gavin's Blog I is one of the most popular Iirsh groups on Facebook. Its is full of information about the whole Ahern Saga. Definitely worth a look!

Eurovision Song Contest 2008

Ye were waiting for this one! Yes its a group I have set up. and its all in the title.

HSE: Not Fit For Purpose,

A group set up by a friend who works in the Health Service. It calls for the following:

• 1. Health education, health promotion, preventing disease on a population level



• 2. Strengthened primary care service that can deliver high quality health care and advice to people in their own communities without unnecessary hospital admissions



• 3. Fire the hordes of incompetent micro-managers in the HSE and various hospitals and hire managers with a proven track record



• 4. Stop antagonising front line staff. Support people who choose to work in a difficult environment. Engage with the people who deliver health care



• 5. Invest in greater supports and home care packages for the elderly and those with chronic illnesses



• 6. Increase the number of long term care beds and nursing homes for an aging population



• 7. Stop funding tax breaks for developers in the shape of colocated hospitals and invest in public facilities and more public beds

Young Fine Gael

The facebook group for YFG. There is also a senior party group. There is also YEPP and EPP groups, and a CDU group!

The Rest of the Rigging The Election

The rest of it

Rigging the Irish Election Part 3 - Manipulate the media and blogs - True Voice

Rigging the Irish Election Part 4 - Embargo day

Rigging the Irish Election Part 5 - Election day - Traffic Module


And its over :D

Rigging the Election - Continued

Damien has posted the 2nd part to the series! An excellent post on tracking candidates!!!

Rigging the Irish Election Part 2 - Profile your candidates and the opposition

3 to go. I'm saying that by the next general election, major parties in Ireland will be using technology based on this post.

Rigging the Election

Damien has started a 5 Part blog series on Rigging the Irish Election. The first part is out and its brilliant!!

Rigging the Irish Election Part 1 - Create cells of organisers

Ill post up the rest when he posts them! They are supposed to be cynical and manipulative, but having being involved in the recent elections I think a system like this isn't far off.