Thursday, January 03, 2008

US Election 2008


The Iowa Caucus is tonight, which marks the start of the US Election Cycle.

Im now going to make some predictions for the US Election and just like Eurovision I will get it completely wrong!!

So the Republican Nominee will be Guiliani and the Democratic Nominee will be Clinton.

The Republicans will win the following states:

AK 3
TX 34
MT 3
ID 4
WY 3
UT 5
AZ 10
ND 3
SD 3
NE 5
KS 6
OK 7
LA 9
MS 6
GA 15
AL 9
SC 8
WV 5
ID 11
FL 27
NM 5
NV 5
PA 21
TN 11
NC 15
KY 8

Total 241 Electoral College votes

Democrats Will win
CO 9
CA 55
OR 7
WA 11
DC 3
HI 4
MN 10
IA 7
MO 11
AR 6
WI 10
IL 21
MI 17
OH 20
VA 13
CT 7
MD 10
DE 3
NJ 15
NY 31
NH 4
ME 4
MA 12
VT 3
RI 4

Total 297 Electoral College Votes

The Next president IMO will be a Democrat. Im saying Clinton...

Battleground states

Wikipedia list the following as Swing States



Northeast

* New Hampshire (4-D): Once very reliably Republican, New Hampshire became a swing state in the 1990s. Republicans still have somewhat of an edge in statewide elections, however the Democrats took control of the state legislature and both Congressional seats in 2006. The New Hampshire Republican Party tends to be more socially liberal than the national party, and as a result their behavior in national elections is harder to determine.

* Pennsylvania (21-D): Pennsylvania is famously described by Democratic strategist James Carville as "you’ve got Philadelphia at one end of the state, Pittsburgh at the other end, and Alabama in the middle.”[5] Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Pedro A. Cort├ęs stated on March 17, 2007, that "The commonwealth’s large number of electoral college votes and diverse population make Pennsylvania a key battleground state." [6] Pennsylvania has leaned Democratic since 1992, giving its electoral votes to Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996), Al Gore (2000) and John Kerry (2004). President George W. Bush visited the state more than 40 times during his 2004 campaign.[7]

South

* Arkansas (6-R): Although a conservative state in the heart of the Bible Belt, the Democratic Party is a powerful force in Arkansas and Democrats tend to have a comfortable advantage in statewide races. Presently, the Governor, both U.S. Senators, and 3 out of 4 of the Arkansas' House members are Democrats, and Democrats control the state legislature by a large margin. The Arkansas Democratic Party tends to be more conservative than the national party, however, and as a result voters there tend to be open to Republican Presidential candidates. Though favorite son Bill Clinton won Arkansas easily both times he ran, Arkansas gave their electoral votes to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 by a fairly large margin.

* Florida (27-R): The outcome of the 2000 Presidential Election hung on a margin of roughly 500 votes in this state, and the fierce legal battles that ensued. Florida's electorate is balanced by heavily Democratic large cities like Miami and sparser, more Republican areas (the Florida Panhandle in this case). Republicans have been winning handily in statewide elections lately; however, the large Hispanic vote near Tampa and Orlando (particularly Puerto Ricans who tend to be the Democrats and have a significant presence in the Orlando area) provide Democrats an edge, but the Cuban-American vote is crucial near Miami; their votes gave an edge to George W. Bush over Al Gore in 2000.

* Virginia (13-R): No Democratic presidential candidate has won Virginia since Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, and it was the only Southern state that went Republican in 1976. Virginia is no longer as reliably Republican as it once was, as evidenced by two successive Democratic gubernatorial victories in 2001 and 2005 and Jim Webb's narrow victory in the 2006 Senate race against incumbent Republican George Allen. Also, Northern Virginia, the rapidly growing region of the state tends to lean Democratic.
o September 13, 2007, former Virginia governor and Democrat Mark Warner announced he will run for the Senate in 2008 for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner. [1]

Midwest

* Iowa (7-R): Al Gore won Iowa in 2000 by a razor-thin margin, and George W. Bush did the same four years later. The state's highly influential caucus makes Iowa the political holy grail of Republicans and Democrats alike.

* Michigan (17-D): Michigan has generally tended to lean Democratic. One of the country's biggest centers of manufacturing, labor unions inevitably come into play, and the economic hard times the state has fallen on recently will no doubt be a major issue for the Great Lakes State in 2008. Republican strength tends to be primarily in the western portion of the lower peninsula of the state. (In particular in the Grand Rapids Metropolitan area which is also one of the fastest growing regions in the Midwest.) While the Democrats are strong in the Southeastern region of the state around the Metro Detroit area in particular and also around the Ann Arbor, Flint, and Saginaw areas as well.

* Minnesota (10-D): Minnesota's transformation into a swing state is a surprising one, given how fervently Democratic the North Star State once was - it was the only state in the country that did not vote for Ronald Reagan in 1984. A strong tradition of populism and labor unions made it difficult for Republicans to have any real success there until recently; the recent competitiveness is due to the ever expanding suburbs of the Twin Cities and exurbs outside of the Twin Cities area. Republicans picked Saint Paul as the site for the 2008 Republican National Convention in September 2008.

* Missouri (11-R): Missouri is geographically situated where the South, the Midwest, and the Great Plains meet, and is in many ways a microcosm of the entire country. Missouri has voted for the winner of every Presidential election since 1904 except 1956, and voters there have proven themselves to be an effective gauge of the national mood. Like the country as a whole, the "coastal" urban areas of St Louis and Kansas City tend to lean strongly to the Democrats while the rural and suburban/exurban areas tend to lean to the Republicans.

* Ohio (20-R): "I think 2008 is very likely to be a hotly contested race in Ohio," stated Eric Rademacher, director of the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, for the Cincinnati Enquirer. [8] Its 20 electoral votes were critical to President Bush's reelection in 2004. In 2006, however, Ohio voters elected Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown for Governor and U.S. Senator. The industrial urban areas of Cleveland, Dayton, Akron, and Youngstown tend to lean to the Democrats while the rural areas and the suburbs and exurbs (in particular around the ever growing Greater Cincinnati and Columbus areas) lean more to the Republicans.

* Wisconsin (10-D): Wisconsin has narrowly gone to Democratic candidates since 1988, which is somewhat ironic considering that the Republican Party was founded there. The Republicans lost their advantage in Wisconsin in the late 19th century when perceived nativist sentiments - particularly the Bennett Law - alienated the state's large German-American population. Southern Wisconsin has a strong progressive tradition, and elected the country's only current openly lesbian U.S. Congresswoman, Tammy Baldwin.

West/Pacific


* Colorado (9-R): Once a reliable GOP stronghold, Colorado has started to steer towards the center during the last decade, where moderate stances have come to prevail. With the victories of Ken Salazar to the U.S. Senate in 2004, Bill Ritter to the Governor's Mansion in 2006 along with an additional U.S. House seat pick-up that same year, Democrats are finding themselves in a better position than before. Large Hispanic populations with strong penchant for populist themes makes this a true battleground state; however Republicans have a 100,000 registration edge against the Democrats. Democrats selected Denver as the site for the 2008 Democratic National Convention.

* Nevada (5-R): Usually considered a "fly-over" state due to its proximity to California with candidates looking for more exposure on the coast, the Silver State is once again looking like a strong swing state. Mormon populations make a decisive vote for the GOP while the presence of strong labor unions and Hispanic voters sway them towards the Democrats in areas like Las Vegas and Reno. A GOP bastion, the state has turned its tide for more populist themes.

* New Mexico (5-R): A classic swing state, personalities trump party affiliation in this western state. New Mexico is truly politically divided, with registration amongst Democrats and Republicans nearly equal and the existence of a strong Independent voting bloc. The state went to Al Gore in 2000 by a mere 400 votes while George W. Bush carried it by a margin of 6000 votes in 2004.

* Oregon (7-D): A Democratic-leaning state, the belief of anti-big government along with strong opposition to central government control, makes Oregon a GOP favorite; however, intense beliefs in civil liberties and liberal ideology on social issues such as abortion and gay rights often leads it to side with the Democrats. The state has gone to the Democrats from the 1988 election onward.


I must say I agree with Wikipedia and not 270towin which dosent list CO as a swing state! though it does have a really cool interactive map!

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Stephen