Showing posts with label Election 08. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election 08. Show all posts
Monday, October 06, 2008
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Dont forget about what else is in the balance
As usual when a Presidential Election comes along every four years, people outside of America forget that there are other elections too. While not as interesting as mid-term elections, the elections for Congress and Governorships are hotly contested.
The House of Representatives is elected for a two year term. The house has 435 seats. Its is currently controlled by the Democrats (235 Democrats to 199 Republicans, one vacancy). There are thirty-two incumbents retiring from the house. Most commentators don't see the House changing sides, and I have to agree. The Republicans will make gains, but not enough.
In the Senate elections, 33 class II senators are up for election, along with two special elections (one in in Wyoming and another in Mississippi) who will serve the remainder of the Class I Senators term. The Senate is currently evenly balanced with 49 senators for both the Republicans and the Democrats, but control rests with the Demorcats due to two independents who caucus with them (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut). Democrats possess a field advantage in 2008, needing to defend only 12 seats, while Republicans must defend 23. In addition, five Republicans, but no Democrats, have announced that they are retiring. I don't see much changes but six states held by Dems voted for Bush last time round, and four states held by Republicans voted for Kerry and these could change hands. Meaning a possible Republican majority? Not likely but could happen.
In terms of Governorships, or gubernatorial elections as they are known, are taking place in 11 states. They are Delaware, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Washington, West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah and Vermont. Of these six are held by Democrats and five by Republicans. Of these only Missouri looks like the only one to change hands going Democrat.
Also this November sees a raft of local elections and of course ballot measures, so far 73 of these have been certified in 17 states. But I think I leave them for another post!
Palin takes her gloves off
Finally the Sarah Palin shows how she got the name "Sarah Baracuda".
Democrats are accusing the Republicans of using "swift boat tactics" but this is a presidential campaign which always gets personal! Voters have to know if the candidate is fit for office and someone who was "palling around with terrorists" is sure as hell not.
Democrats are accusing the Republicans of using "swift boat tactics" but this is a presidential campaign which always gets personal! Voters have to know if the candidate is fit for office and someone who was "palling around with terrorists" is sure as hell not.
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Palin and Homosexuality
Palin seams to get a lot of bad press lately about her attitudes towards homosexuality, but those of you who pay attention to my google shared items or my friendfeed would have seen that Gaypatriot.com have an excellent post on Palin and her ACTUAL position on homosexuality. The video is below, but do read the original post also.
So, while I disagree with how the whole choice thing comes across, but maybe she does think like Bruce comments, that she means choice to come out. So that is the Presidential Candidate and Vice Presidential with good attitudes towards homosexuality!
So, while I disagree with how the whole choice thing comes across, but maybe she does think like Bruce comments, that she means choice to come out. So that is the Presidential Candidate and Vice Presidential with good attitudes towards homosexuality!
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
If the polls are right...
Via HotAir
New York could become a Battle Ground State! Thats according to the latest Siena Poll the voting intentions were Obama 46% and McCain 41%. This is in comparison to last months poll which had Obama on 47% and McCain 39%. The gap is closing as there is less undecided voters.
New York is traditionally a Democrat state and hasn't voted Republican since 1984. Will it change to a republican this year? If NY does change to a Battle Ground State then it will force Obama to spend money there to shore up support and means it cant invest it in other Battle Ground States, this could create a new dynamic in this years election as if NY becomes a Battle Ground State then that is 31 Electoral College votes up for grabs and would make it the largest one! Currently Florida is the largest Battle Ground State with 27 electoral college votes.
It will be a fun Fall (Autumn!!!)
New York could become a Battle Ground State! Thats according to the latest Siena Poll the voting intentions were Obama 46% and McCain 41%. This is in comparison to last months poll which had Obama on 47% and McCain 39%. The gap is closing as there is less undecided voters.
New York is traditionally a Democrat state and hasn't voted Republican since 1984. Will it change to a republican this year? If NY does change to a Battle Ground State then it will force Obama to spend money there to shore up support and means it cant invest it in other Battle Ground States, this could create a new dynamic in this years election as if NY becomes a Battle Ground State then that is 31 Electoral College votes up for grabs and would make it the largest one! Currently Florida is the largest Battle Ground State with 27 electoral college votes.
It will be a fun Fall (Autumn!!!)
Friday, March 07, 2008
Dem Dark Horses: Michigan and Florida.
As most people with an interest in the current nomination procedure. Michigan and Florida were stripped of their Delegates by the DNC for breaking party rules. Now it seams there will be a re-vote in these states to allow the states to be seated at conevntion.
What will this mean for the race? Clinton won both states, but she was the only name on the ballot in Michigan, so the re-vote will have Obama's name on it. This could also lengthen the primary season and cost the Democrats more money when they need all the money they can get to ensure a Democratic victory come November.
There is a number of stories floating around in the media and US Blogs about this.
According to Politco, there are 5 options for the DNC . They are:
(Full Story)
But what are the numbers involved? Florida lost 210 pledged delegates and 28 superdelegates, and Michigan lost 156 pledged delegates and 25 superdelegates. Thats more then then the half that are still to play for!
In a statement Howard Dean, head of the DNC, showed what is imported for the Democrats come November.
(Source: Marc Ambinde Blog)
This is the crux of it for the Dems, they need to sort it quickly, they need to avoid divisions, if they are to beat McCain in November.
What will this mean for the race? Clinton won both states, but she was the only name on the ballot in Michigan, so the re-vote will have Obama's name on it. This could also lengthen the primary season and cost the Democrats more money when they need all the money they can get to ensure a Democratic victory come November.
There is a number of stories floating around in the media and US Blogs about this.
According to Politco, there are 5 options for the DNC . They are:
1. The Heck With Them Option: Michigan and Florida broke the rules and should suffer. If they are not made to pay for moving up their contests, 2012 will be even more chaotic than 2008. Strip Michigan and Florida of their delegates, and let the chips fall where they may.
2. The Kumbaya Option: Can’t we all just get along? Let’s seat Michigan and Florida the way the voters voted, and if this helps Clinton, that’s the way the nomination crumbles. The major problem with this, however, is that neither primary was exactly normal. Clinton was the only person on the Michigan ballot, and all the candidates agreed not to campaign in Florida.
3. The Split the Baby Option: Give 50 percent of the delegates to Obama and 50 percent to Clinton. At least this way, the voters of Michigan and Florida will not be insulted and will not punish the Democratic nominee in November.
4. The Mulligan Option: Do it over. Hold new contests. Maybe a caucus in Michigan and a primary in Florida. (Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, a Republican, has said he would support a do over in his state.) This option seems to be gaining in popularity within the party. The new contests could be held on the first Tuesday in June, along with Montana’s and South Dakota’s. Sure, this would cost millions, but nobody ever said democracy was cheap.
5. The Lone Ranger Option: Just wait for somebody to ride into town and save the day. Maybe Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean will be able to negotiate a settlement between Obama and Clinton. Except that a source at the DNC told me Dean is in no hurry to intervene. “He wants to let the voters have their say,” the source said. “We need to take a step back. We still have 10 states [plus Guam and Puerto Rico] left to vote and 600 pledged delegates to be determined.”
(Full Story)
But what are the numbers involved? Florida lost 210 pledged delegates and 28 superdelegates, and Michigan lost 156 pledged delegates and 25 superdelegates. Thats more then then the half that are still to play for!
In a statement Howard Dean, head of the DNC, showed what is imported for the Democrats come November.
"As we head towards November, our nominee must have the united support of a strong Democratic Party that's ready to fight and ready to beat John McCain. After seven years of Republican rule, I am confident that we will elect a Democratic president who will fight for America's families in the White House. Now we must hear from the voters in twelve states and territories who have yet to make their voices heard."
(Source: Marc Ambinde Blog)
This is the crux of it for the Dems, they need to sort it quickly, they need to avoid divisions, if they are to beat McCain in November.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
First in the Nation Race A Mistake?
Late last year and early this year, US States were battling each other to be the "First in the Nation" to vote on who will be the Presidential Candidates for the two major parties.
It worked for niether party. In this unprecented nomination battle, to took until Super Tuesday for a Republican Front Runner (which the media got wrong) to really come forward. With the democrats, all it did was lower the field to two.
Why is it Unprecented?
For me working from my living memory (i.e. the 2000 and 2004 nominations) by Super Tuesday or just after we knew who would be the Nominee for both parties. This year is the mother of nomination battles. Hukabee dropped out last night after a strong showing on Super Tuesday, but he couldnt match McCain. So McCain is the 'presumptive' nominee of the Republican Party.
The state of the Candidates, Delegate wise
Who is doing better Clinton or Obama?
Firstly these numbers all depend on which news organisation you follow so I will give a sample below.
CNN have Obama on 1,451 delegates and Clinton on 1,365. CBS have Obama on 1,512 and Clinton on 1,423. Fox News has Obama on 1,477 and Clinton on 1,391.
Has you can see Obama has about 100 delegates more then Clinton, but there are 601 delegates still up for grabs.
So which states have the voting power to decide who wins the Democratic Nomination?
Pennsylvania will be the last of the Delegate rich votes to go to the polls on April 22. Pennsylvania has 158 delegates. May 6th will see the next big numbers as Indiana (72 Delegates) and North Carolina (115 Delegates) go to the polls. If thats dosent produce a winner May 20th sees Kentucky (51 Delegates) and Oregen (52 Delegates). if that dosent produce a winner it could fall to Puerto Rico (55 Delegates) on June 7th, which will be the last nomination contest this year, to decide the Democrat Nomination. Still a few interesting battles ahead.
The Full list of states to vote are:
* Wyoming (Caucus) on March 8th, which has 12 Delegates,
* Mississippi (Primary) on March 11th, which has 33 Delegates,
* Pennsylvania (Primay) on April 22nd, which has 158 Delegates
* Guam (Caucus) on May 3rd, which has 4 Delegates,
* Indiana (Primary) on May 6th, which has 72 Delegates,
* North Carolina (Primary) on May 6th, which has 115 Delegates,
* West Virginia (Primary) on May 13th, which has 28 Delegates,
* Kentucky (Primary) on May 20th, which has 51 Delegates,
* Oregan (Primary) on May 20th, which has 52 Delegates,
* Montana (Primary) on June 3rd, which has 16 Delegates,
* South Dakota (Primary) on June 3rd, which has 15 Delegates,
* Puerto Rico (Caucus) on June 7th, which has 55 Delegates.
So who will win the Democratic Nomination?
There is a blog I subscribe to, Declarations of Pride, who seams to flip-flop (his words) between Hilary and Barack. But his latest post somes it up for me, especially the line
I know Obama can fix this country, but I think that Hillary WILL fix this country.(His emphasis).
I think its going to be really close but PA will decide who gets it. If Clinton wins, she will be back on a roll and will give her momentum to win Indiana and North Carolina. If Obama wins PA, he will win Indiana and North Carolina. Whoever wins those 3 states has it won.
I made two predictions at the start of this year, with regards to nominations. I got the Republican one wrong (Guiliani) but I'm still looking okish on my Democratic Prediction (Clinton). I wonder will I be right?
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Super Tuesday: New Mexico still a tie....
Well its coming down to a wisker in New Mexico. At the moment tallies from the reporting precincts have Clinton on 49% of the vote and Obama and 48%. Its been neck and neck there since yesterday and neither candidate can pull ahead. New Mexico has 26 delegates for convention and think it will play out like this across the US. Clinton and Obama will trade wins and states whos delegates dont cont cause they broke party rules (Michigan and Florida) might come into play to break the deadlock who knows!
Over all Obama has won the following states: Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Conn., Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minneasota, Missouiri, North Dakota and Utah.
Clinton on the other hand won in the following states, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Mass., New Jersey and New York. I think Mike Gavel will drop out of the Democratic race soon enough (bet ye for got he was running!)
Though Obama won in Alabama, Clinton will have more delegates from Alabama then Obama as she won more precincts. Delegate estimates (emphasis on estimates!) have Clinton on 823 and Obama on 741. It is estimated that 2,025 delegates are needed to win.
For the Republicans, McCain i think has it. It has swept up California, New York and Illinois all delegate rich states. Huckabee was the surprise of the day winning in five states and Romney won 7 states. I think Romney really need to go away and think if he should continue.
McCain won in the states of Ariyzona, California, Conn., Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New York, New Jersey and Oklahoma. Romeny won in Alaska, Colorado, Mass., Minneasota, Montana, North Dakota and Utah. Huackabee won in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and West Virgina.
The Republican Delegate estimates look like this, bear in mind most republican states have a winner takes all situation for delegates unlike the proportional system used by the democrats. McCain has 680, Romney has 270, Huckabee has 176 and Ron Paul has 16. It is estimated that you need the support of 1,191 delegates to win the nomination.
Thats it for now. Hopeful will blog about Lisbon and Germany tonight. Unless something unexpected happens in New Mexico!
Over all Obama has won the following states: Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Conn., Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minneasota, Missouiri, North Dakota and Utah.
Clinton on the other hand won in the following states, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Mass., New Jersey and New York. I think Mike Gavel will drop out of the Democratic race soon enough (bet ye for got he was running!)
Though Obama won in Alabama, Clinton will have more delegates from Alabama then Obama as she won more precincts. Delegate estimates (emphasis on estimates!) have Clinton on 823 and Obama on 741. It is estimated that 2,025 delegates are needed to win.
For the Republicans, McCain i think has it. It has swept up California, New York and Illinois all delegate rich states. Huckabee was the surprise of the day winning in five states and Romney won 7 states. I think Romney really need to go away and think if he should continue.
McCain won in the states of Ariyzona, California, Conn., Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New York, New Jersey and Oklahoma. Romeny won in Alaska, Colorado, Mass., Minneasota, Montana, North Dakota and Utah. Huackabee won in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and West Virgina.
The Republican Delegate estimates look like this, bear in mind most republican states have a winner takes all situation for delegates unlike the proportional system used by the democrats. McCain has 680, Romney has 270, Huckabee has 176 and Ron Paul has 16. It is estimated that you need the support of 1,191 delegates to win the nomination.
Thats it for now. Hopeful will blog about Lisbon and Germany tonight. Unless something unexpected happens in New Mexico!
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Super Tuesday: States with final Results 10am CET
Heres a rundown of full results as at 10am CET
Deleware
Dems: Obama wins here with 53% of the vote leaving Clinton behind on 43%. In the important delegate race, Obama gets 9 to Clintons
Reps: McCain wins here with 45% of the vote giving him 18 delegates. Romney comes second with a 33% of the vote and Huckabee comes third with 15%. The important threshold for delegates in 15%.
Idaho
Dems: Obama streaks ahead here and wins with 79% of the caucus goers supporting him. Thet gives him 15 delegates to Cintons 3 (And 17% of the vote!)
Kansas
Dmes: Another cuacus victory for Obama this time giving him 74% of the vote and 23 delegates. Clinton has 26% of the vote and 9 delegates.
Missouri
Dems: the smallest of margins sperates the democratic contenders in this state. Obama and Clinton have evenly split the delegates between. In the actual vote Obama won by 1% leading Clinton 49% to 48%.
Reps: McCain did a similar feat here. He beat Huckabee by 1% and Romney by 4%! The results were McCain 33%, Huckabee 32%, Romney, 29%. Is Huckabee making himself the prosective VP candidate?
Monatana
Reps: Caucus goers here preffered Romney with 38% supporting him. McCain (22%) and Huckabee (15%) were pushed to third and fourth respectively as Ron Paul came second with 25% of the support.
North Dakota
Dems: Again caucus goers supported Obama giving him 61% of the vote and 8 delegates. Meanwhile Clinton got 31% and 5 delegates.
Reps: Here caucus goers again supported Romney giving him 36% of the vote. McCain came second with 23%, Ron Paul third with 21% just pushing Huckabee into fourth on 20%.
Oklahoma
Dems: Here Clinton wins by a margin of 14%! She gets 55% of the vote getting 24 of all those important delegates. Obama gets 31% and gets 14 delegates.
Reps: McCain beats Huckabee to win this state with 17% of the vote to Huckabees 33%. Romeny comes third with 25% of the vote. McCain gets 32 delegates to Huckabess 6.
Tennessee
Dems: Clinton wins here on 54% of the vote compared with Obama's 41%. This leaves her with 34 delegates and Obama with 21.
Reps: Huckabee here beats McCain to win 34% of the vote and 12 Delegates. McCain gets 32% and 7 delegates. Romney comes third with 24% and 3 delegates.
West Virginia
Reps: One of the tighest caucus results I've seen. Huckabee edges out Romney by 5%. He has the support of 52% of state delegates compared to Romney's 47%. McCain got 1% of the vote!
Will put up further results when I get them.
Deleware
Dems: Obama wins here with 53% of the vote leaving Clinton behind on 43%. In the important delegate race, Obama gets 9 to Clintons
Reps: McCain wins here with 45% of the vote giving him 18 delegates. Romney comes second with a 33% of the vote and Huckabee comes third with 15%. The important threshold for delegates in 15%.
Idaho
Dems: Obama streaks ahead here and wins with 79% of the caucus goers supporting him. Thet gives him 15 delegates to Cintons 3 (And 17% of the vote!)
Kansas
Dmes: Another cuacus victory for Obama this time giving him 74% of the vote and 23 delegates. Clinton has 26% of the vote and 9 delegates.
Missouri
Dems: the smallest of margins sperates the democratic contenders in this state. Obama and Clinton have evenly split the delegates between. In the actual vote Obama won by 1% leading Clinton 49% to 48%.
Reps: McCain did a similar feat here. He beat Huckabee by 1% and Romney by 4%! The results were McCain 33%, Huckabee 32%, Romney, 29%. Is Huckabee making himself the prosective VP candidate?
Monatana
Reps: Caucus goers here preffered Romney with 38% supporting him. McCain (22%) and Huckabee (15%) were pushed to third and fourth respectively as Ron Paul came second with 25% of the support.
North Dakota
Dems: Again caucus goers supported Obama giving him 61% of the vote and 8 delegates. Meanwhile Clinton got 31% and 5 delegates.
Reps: Here caucus goers again supported Romney giving him 36% of the vote. McCain came second with 23%, Ron Paul third with 21% just pushing Huckabee into fourth on 20%.
Oklahoma
Dems: Here Clinton wins by a margin of 14%! She gets 55% of the vote getting 24 of all those important delegates. Obama gets 31% and gets 14 delegates.
Reps: McCain beats Huckabee to win this state with 17% of the vote to Huckabees 33%. Romeny comes third with 25% of the vote. McCain gets 32 delegates to Huckabess 6.
Tennessee
Dems: Clinton wins here on 54% of the vote compared with Obama's 41%. This leaves her with 34 delegates and Obama with 21.
Reps: Huckabee here beats McCain to win 34% of the vote and 12 Delegates. McCain gets 32% and 7 delegates. Romney comes third with 24% and 3 delegates.
West Virginia
Reps: One of the tighest caucus results I've seen. Huckabee edges out Romney by 5%. He has the support of 52% of state delegates compared to Romney's 47%. McCain got 1% of the vote!
Will put up further results when I get them.
Super Tuesday: Results so far. 9am CET
These are the results I have at hand from CNN at 9am CET. With 24 states holding contests its a biggie. Especially with delegate rich states as California and New York being the big ones. All percentage figures are of Precints Reporting results unless otherwise stated.
Alabama
Dem Primary: Obama (99% precincts reporting)
Rep Primary: Huckabee (99% precincts reporting)
Alaska
Dem Caucus: Obama (98%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (90%)
Arizona
Dem Primary: Clinton (82%)
Rep Primary: McCain (81%)
Arkansas
Dem Primary: Clinton (87%)
Rep Primary: McCain (87%)
California
Dem Primary: Clinton (48%)
Rep Primary: McCain (47%)
Colorado
Dem Caucus: Obama (99%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (95%)
Connecticut
Dem Primary: Obama (99%)
Rep Primary: McCain (99%)
Delaware
Dem Primary: Obama (100%)
Rep Primary: McCain (100%)
Georgia
Dem Primary: Obama (99%)
Rep Primary: Huckabee (98%)
Idaho
Dem Caucus: Obama (97%)
Rep Rimary on May 27th
Illinois
Dem Primary: Obama (97%)
Rep Primary: McCain (97%)
Kansas
Dem Caucus: Obama (100%)
Rep Caucus on February 9th
Massachusetts
Dem Primary: Clinton (97%)
Rep Primary: Romney (96%)
Minneasota
Dem Caucus: Obama (81%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (82%)
Missouri
Dem Primary: Obama (100%)
Rep Primary: McCain (100%)
Montana
Rep Caucus: Romney (100%)
Dem Primary on June 3rd
New Jersey
Dem Primary: Clinton (99%)
Rep Primary: McCain (99%)
New Mexico
Dem Primary: With 54% of precints reporting Clinton is 2% ahead of Obama. Its far from over here. Its too close to call
Rep Primary on June 3rd
New York
Dem Primary: Clinton (99%)
Rep Primary: McCain (99%)
North Dakota
Dem Caucus: Obama (100%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (100%)
Oklahoma
Dem Primary: Clinton (100%)
Rep Primary: McCain (100%)
Tennessee
Dem Primary: Clinton (100%)
Rep Primary: Huckabee (100%)
Utah
Dem Primary: Obama (99%)
Rep Primary: Romney (99%)
West Virginia
Rep Caucus: Huckabee (100%)
Dem Primary on May 13th
McCain is now definatley the frontrunner for the GOP nomination and Clinton and Obama are still neck and neck. Its still all to play for.
Up Next Feb 9th
Kansas caucuses (Rep Only)
Louisiana primaries
Nebraska caucuses (Dem Only)
Washington caucuses
Alabama
Dem Primary: Obama (99% precincts reporting)
Rep Primary: Huckabee (99% precincts reporting)
Alaska
Dem Caucus: Obama (98%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (90%)
Arizona
Dem Primary: Clinton (82%)
Rep Primary: McCain (81%)
Arkansas
Dem Primary: Clinton (87%)
Rep Primary: McCain (87%)
California
Dem Primary: Clinton (48%)
Rep Primary: McCain (47%)
Colorado
Dem Caucus: Obama (99%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (95%)
Connecticut
Dem Primary: Obama (99%)
Rep Primary: McCain (99%)
Delaware
Dem Primary: Obama (100%)
Rep Primary: McCain (100%)
Georgia
Dem Primary: Obama (99%)
Rep Primary: Huckabee (98%)
Idaho
Dem Caucus: Obama (97%)
Rep Rimary on May 27th
Illinois
Dem Primary: Obama (97%)
Rep Primary: McCain (97%)
Kansas
Dem Caucus: Obama (100%)
Rep Caucus on February 9th
Massachusetts
Dem Primary: Clinton (97%)
Rep Primary: Romney (96%)
Minneasota
Dem Caucus: Obama (81%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (82%)
Missouri
Dem Primary: Obama (100%)
Rep Primary: McCain (100%)
Montana
Rep Caucus: Romney (100%)
Dem Primary on June 3rd
New Jersey
Dem Primary: Clinton (99%)
Rep Primary: McCain (99%)
New Mexico
Dem Primary: With 54% of precints reporting Clinton is 2% ahead of Obama. Its far from over here. Its too close to call
Rep Primary on June 3rd
New York
Dem Primary: Clinton (99%)
Rep Primary: McCain (99%)
North Dakota
Dem Caucus: Obama (100%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (100%)
Oklahoma
Dem Primary: Clinton (100%)
Rep Primary: McCain (100%)
Tennessee
Dem Primary: Clinton (100%)
Rep Primary: Huckabee (100%)
Utah
Dem Primary: Obama (99%)
Rep Primary: Romney (99%)
West Virginia
Rep Caucus: Huckabee (100%)
Dem Primary on May 13th
McCain is now definatley the frontrunner for the GOP nomination and Clinton and Obama are still neck and neck. Its still all to play for.
Up Next Feb 9th
Kansas caucuses (Rep Only)
Louisiana primaries
Nebraska caucuses (Dem Only)
Washington caucuses
Monday, January 28, 2008
Election Results: Hessen (Hesse) unt Niedersachsen (Lower Saxony)
Update: Looking for the Results of the 2009 Election? See here.
They are fast with the results here in Germany (without electronic voting I may add!)
The results are bad for the CDU. They are down in both states which are seen as the test waters for next years federal elections. The results are as follows
Hessen (Hesse)
Percentages (Seats)
CDU: 36,8 (42)
SPD: 36,7 (42)
FDP: 9,4 (11)
Grüne: 8,0 (9)
Der Linke: 5,1 (6)
My View
This is a defeat for the CDU and Roland Koch in particular. The CDU lost 12% of the vote. The gainers in the election were: SPD up 7%, FDP up 1,5% and Der Linke who passed the 5% threshold on their first outing in Hessen leaving them with 5,1% of the vote!
There is a 110 seats in the state parliament and neither the two major parties and their favoured coaltion have a majority (CDU/FDP:53 seats, SPD/Grüne 51 seats). This means it will more then likely be a CDU/SPD coalition. Who will be Minister-President is a different question.
Niedersachsen (Lower Saxony)
Percentages (Seats)
CDU: 42,5(68)
SPD: 30,3 (48)
FDP: 8,2 (13)
Grüne: 8,0 (12)
Der Linke: 7,1 (11)
The CDU have also suffered losses here down 6% for the last election in 2003. The SPD is also down 3% of the vote. The gainers here were FDP up 0,1% Grüne up 0,4% and Der Linke up 6,6%. Though the FDP and Grüne incrsead their vote share, they both are down two seats.
My View
Der Linke are the winners in this state. They surpassed the 5% threshold on their second outing in this state. Neither party will do a deal with them, but if they become enough of a force by the Federal Elections next year then both parties might change their tune. (Maybe not the CDU!) The Parliemant here has 152 seats and the current coalition (CDU/FDP) have enough seats to continue to govern so Christian Wulff will stay on as Minister-President.
They are fast with the results here in Germany (without electronic voting I may add!)
The results are bad for the CDU. They are down in both states which are seen as the test waters for next years federal elections. The results are as follows
Hessen (Hesse)
Percentages (Seats)
CDU: 36,8 (42)
SPD: 36,7 (42)
FDP: 9,4 (11)
Grüne: 8,0 (9)
Der Linke: 5,1 (6)
My View
This is a defeat for the CDU and Roland Koch in particular. The CDU lost 12% of the vote. The gainers in the election were: SPD up 7%, FDP up 1,5% and Der Linke who passed the 5% threshold on their first outing in Hessen leaving them with 5,1% of the vote!
There is a 110 seats in the state parliament and neither the two major parties and their favoured coaltion have a majority (CDU/FDP:53 seats, SPD/Grüne 51 seats). This means it will more then likely be a CDU/SPD coalition. Who will be Minister-President is a different question.
Niedersachsen (Lower Saxony)
Percentages (Seats)
CDU: 42,5(68)
SPD: 30,3 (48)
FDP: 8,2 (13)
Grüne: 8,0 (12)
Der Linke: 7,1 (11)
The CDU have also suffered losses here down 6% for the last election in 2003. The SPD is also down 3% of the vote. The gainers here were FDP up 0,1% Grüne up 0,4% and Der Linke up 6,6%. Though the FDP and Grüne incrsead their vote share, they both are down two seats.
My View
Der Linke are the winners in this state. They surpassed the 5% threshold on their second outing in this state. Neither party will do a deal with them, but if they become enough of a force by the Federal Elections next year then both parties might change their tune. (Maybe not the CDU!) The Parliemant here has 152 seats and the current coalition (CDU/FDP) have enough seats to continue to govern so Christian Wulff will stay on as Minister-President.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
US Election 2008
The Iowa Caucus is tonight, which marks the start of the US Election Cycle.
Im now going to make some predictions for the US Election and just like Eurovision I will get it completely wrong!!
So the Republican Nominee will be Guiliani and the Democratic Nominee will be Clinton.
The Republicans will win the following states:
AK 3
TX 34
MT 3
ID 4
WY 3
UT 5
AZ 10
ND 3
SD 3
NE 5
KS 6
OK 7
LA 9
MS 6
GA 15
AL 9
SC 8
WV 5
ID 11
FL 27
NM 5
NV 5
PA 21
TN 11
NC 15
KY 8
Total 241 Electoral College votes
Democrats Will win
CO 9
CA 55
OR 7
WA 11
DC 3
HI 4
MN 10
IA 7
MO 11
AR 6
WI 10
IL 21
MI 17
OH 20
VA 13
CT 7
MD 10
DE 3
NJ 15
NY 31
NH 4
ME 4
MA 12
VT 3
RI 4
Total 297 Electoral College Votes
The Next president IMO will be a Democrat. Im saying Clinton...
Battleground states
Wikipedia list the following as Swing States
Northeast
* New Hampshire (4-D): Once very reliably Republican, New Hampshire became a swing state in the 1990s. Republicans still have somewhat of an edge in statewide elections, however the Democrats took control of the state legislature and both Congressional seats in 2006. The New Hampshire Republican Party tends to be more socially liberal than the national party, and as a result their behavior in national elections is harder to determine.
* Pennsylvania (21-D): Pennsylvania is famously described by Democratic strategist James Carville as "you’ve got Philadelphia at one end of the state, Pittsburgh at the other end, and Alabama in the middle.”[5] Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Pedro A. Cortés stated on March 17, 2007, that "The commonwealth’s large number of electoral college votes and diverse population make Pennsylvania a key battleground state." [6] Pennsylvania has leaned Democratic since 1992, giving its electoral votes to Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996), Al Gore (2000) and John Kerry (2004). President George W. Bush visited the state more than 40 times during his 2004 campaign.[7]
South
* Arkansas (6-R): Although a conservative state in the heart of the Bible Belt, the Democratic Party is a powerful force in Arkansas and Democrats tend to have a comfortable advantage in statewide races. Presently, the Governor, both U.S. Senators, and 3 out of 4 of the Arkansas' House members are Democrats, and Democrats control the state legislature by a large margin. The Arkansas Democratic Party tends to be more conservative than the national party, however, and as a result voters there tend to be open to Republican Presidential candidates. Though favorite son Bill Clinton won Arkansas easily both times he ran, Arkansas gave their electoral votes to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 by a fairly large margin.
* Florida (27-R): The outcome of the 2000 Presidential Election hung on a margin of roughly 500 votes in this state, and the fierce legal battles that ensued. Florida's electorate is balanced by heavily Democratic large cities like Miami and sparser, more Republican areas (the Florida Panhandle in this case). Republicans have been winning handily in statewide elections lately; however, the large Hispanic vote near Tampa and Orlando (particularly Puerto Ricans who tend to be the Democrats and have a significant presence in the Orlando area) provide Democrats an edge, but the Cuban-American vote is crucial near Miami; their votes gave an edge to George W. Bush over Al Gore in 2000.
* Virginia (13-R): No Democratic presidential candidate has won Virginia since Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, and it was the only Southern state that went Republican in 1976. Virginia is no longer as reliably Republican as it once was, as evidenced by two successive Democratic gubernatorial victories in 2001 and 2005 and Jim Webb's narrow victory in the 2006 Senate race against incumbent Republican George Allen. Also, Northern Virginia, the rapidly growing region of the state tends to lean Democratic.
o September 13, 2007, former Virginia governor and Democrat Mark Warner announced he will run for the Senate in 2008 for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner. [1]
Midwest
* Iowa (7-R): Al Gore won Iowa in 2000 by a razor-thin margin, and George W. Bush did the same four years later. The state's highly influential caucus makes Iowa the political holy grail of Republicans and Democrats alike.
* Michigan (17-D): Michigan has generally tended to lean Democratic. One of the country's biggest centers of manufacturing, labor unions inevitably come into play, and the economic hard times the state has fallen on recently will no doubt be a major issue for the Great Lakes State in 2008. Republican strength tends to be primarily in the western portion of the lower peninsula of the state. (In particular in the Grand Rapids Metropolitan area which is also one of the fastest growing regions in the Midwest.) While the Democrats are strong in the Southeastern region of the state around the Metro Detroit area in particular and also around the Ann Arbor, Flint, and Saginaw areas as well.
* Minnesota (10-D): Minnesota's transformation into a swing state is a surprising one, given how fervently Democratic the North Star State once was - it was the only state in the country that did not vote for Ronald Reagan in 1984. A strong tradition of populism and labor unions made it difficult for Republicans to have any real success there until recently; the recent competitiveness is due to the ever expanding suburbs of the Twin Cities and exurbs outside of the Twin Cities area. Republicans picked Saint Paul as the site for the 2008 Republican National Convention in September 2008.
* Missouri (11-R): Missouri is geographically situated where the South, the Midwest, and the Great Plains meet, and is in many ways a microcosm of the entire country. Missouri has voted for the winner of every Presidential election since 1904 except 1956, and voters there have proven themselves to be an effective gauge of the national mood. Like the country as a whole, the "coastal" urban areas of St Louis and Kansas City tend to lean strongly to the Democrats while the rural and suburban/exurban areas tend to lean to the Republicans.
* Ohio (20-R): "I think 2008 is very likely to be a hotly contested race in Ohio," stated Eric Rademacher, director of the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, for the Cincinnati Enquirer. [8] Its 20 electoral votes were critical to President Bush's reelection in 2004. In 2006, however, Ohio voters elected Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown for Governor and U.S. Senator. The industrial urban areas of Cleveland, Dayton, Akron, and Youngstown tend to lean to the Democrats while the rural areas and the suburbs and exurbs (in particular around the ever growing Greater Cincinnati and Columbus areas) lean more to the Republicans.
* Wisconsin (10-D): Wisconsin has narrowly gone to Democratic candidates since 1988, which is somewhat ironic considering that the Republican Party was founded there. The Republicans lost their advantage in Wisconsin in the late 19th century when perceived nativist sentiments - particularly the Bennett Law - alienated the state's large German-American population. Southern Wisconsin has a strong progressive tradition, and elected the country's only current openly lesbian U.S. Congresswoman, Tammy Baldwin.
West/Pacific
* Colorado (9-R): Once a reliable GOP stronghold, Colorado has started to steer towards the center during the last decade, where moderate stances have come to prevail. With the victories of Ken Salazar to the U.S. Senate in 2004, Bill Ritter to the Governor's Mansion in 2006 along with an additional U.S. House seat pick-up that same year, Democrats are finding themselves in a better position than before. Large Hispanic populations with strong penchant for populist themes makes this a true battleground state; however Republicans have a 100,000 registration edge against the Democrats. Democrats selected Denver as the site for the 2008 Democratic National Convention.
* Nevada (5-R): Usually considered a "fly-over" state due to its proximity to California with candidates looking for more exposure on the coast, the Silver State is once again looking like a strong swing state. Mormon populations make a decisive vote for the GOP while the presence of strong labor unions and Hispanic voters sway them towards the Democrats in areas like Las Vegas and Reno. A GOP bastion, the state has turned its tide for more populist themes.
* New Mexico (5-R): A classic swing state, personalities trump party affiliation in this western state. New Mexico is truly politically divided, with registration amongst Democrats and Republicans nearly equal and the existence of a strong Independent voting bloc. The state went to Al Gore in 2000 by a mere 400 votes while George W. Bush carried it by a margin of 6000 votes in 2004.
* Oregon (7-D): A Democratic-leaning state, the belief of anti-big government along with strong opposition to central government control, makes Oregon a GOP favorite; however, intense beliefs in civil liberties and liberal ideology on social issues such as abortion and gay rights often leads it to side with the Democrats. The state has gone to the Democrats from the 1988 election onward.
I must say I agree with Wikipedia and not 270towin which dosent list CO as a swing state! though it does have a really cool interactive map!
Saturday, July 07, 2007
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