PALIN PALIN PALIN

So what a choice from McCain and has proved to me that he is the person that should be the next President of the USA.

By picking Sarah Palin, McCain has taken the momentum from the Dems and Obama's campaign. McCain can now be seen as the one trying to change Washington politics. He is known as a maverick among most republicans in washington and by picking Palin will bring an outsider (with government expeirence, something Obama lacks) to the heart of his administration!

A friend mentioned Sarah Palin to me as a possible VP Nominee a long time ago by a friend who I txted when I saw the news on Sky News in the Bank on Friday! Whats even stranger was i predicted her back in an email to the same friend back on the 2nd of Jan when I predicted her as Guiliani's running mate! Wow! Never gotten something like that right! :D (Dont ask about the Dems my predictions where completely wrong!

There are loads of blog posts about it around the place some of whom I have linked to from here so I won't say no more for now. But best of luck to Sarah Palin!

The Next Taoiseach of Ireland: Brian Cowen

Based on a post I orginally posted on The Political Gay over on GayCork

Tomorrow Brian Cowen will be elected Taoiseach of Ireland. The Big question will be the result of the reshuffle? Will Harney be replaced by Cannon? Who will get Finance? Who will be dropped and who will be promoted.

I have a feeling Lenihan will get Finance and Tániste. If that happens I think Coughlan could move to Justice. The poison chalice is the big Question though, if Hareny leaves Health who will take over? Cannon won't want it, if he has any sense. It will be interesting to have an Governemnt Minister in the Seanad though! It will increase its poistion within the political system.

Another question is will he drop any policies? will he try and renegiate the Programme for Government? I doubt on both of these. No Irish Government policy has major opposition in public opinion like 42 days and ID's in the UK. Of course the first month will be taken up with Lisbon, but that could be the waste of the Honeymoon period also.

What I want to know is will we see Civil Partnerships (Unions or whatever) under Cowen? Ahern was great on rhetoric but will Cowen take the action?

Random Facts:
He was born 10 January 1960 and was first elected in 1984 to represent constituency of Laois-Offaly. He has served in the following Ministries: Minister for Labour (1992–1993), Minister for Energy (1993), Minister for Transport, Energy & Communications (1993–1994), Minister for Health & Children (1997–2000), Minister for Foreign Affairs (2000–2004) and until tomorrow Minister of Finance.

He has wide ranging expeirence in a number of portfolios so has the potential to be a good Taoiseach.

The question is will he face the same problems has Gordon Brown? He is taking over from a popular Taoiseach, granted he has been dogged lately by the Tribunal, but he is popular in Ireland none the less.

He was not leader of the Party when elected. This isnt as big an issue as in the UK considering when we go to the polls you can vote for every party, as is the way with PRSTV. While in the UK you vote for one and thats the leader you expect. I dont see accusations of being 'unelected' being bandied about as much as they are with Brown.

Time will tell if he 'dithers' like Gordon. I dount he will though.

Of course he will always be BIFFO* to me dispite the fact he is Taoiseach!

*Note: I take BIFFO to mean "Big Ignorant F***er From Offaly" not "Big Intelligent Fellow From Offaly"

Boris is Mayor!

I am delighted! This tops off an excellent Local Election cycle for the Conservatives. Boris won with 1,168,738 first and second preference votes, compared with Mr Livingstone's 1,028,966 on a record turnout of 45%.

Also all the council results are in now. The Conservtaives have gained 12 councils and 256 councillors. Labour lost 9 councils and 331 councillors. The Liberal Demorcrats held there own and gained 1 council and 31 councillors. Plaid Cymru lost control of its only council but gained 33 councillors.

On the London Assemby, the Conservatives lost 1 Constituency AM to Labour but gained 3 on the List Vote. Giving them 11 seats, Labour are on 8, LD 3, Greens 2 and BNP 1.

The BNP made a few gains this election. They surpassed the 5% threshold in London to get 1 list seat, they also gained 10 councillors to give them 37 in total. The BNP are an issue not just for Labour and the Conservatives but all mainstream parties. They need to be watched closely. I dont see them winning seats at the Next General Election but thay could come 2nd or 3rd in a few seats.

So YouGov got it right, as did ConservativeHome and the London Standard who all called it for Boris.

So my predictions:

* Boris will win the London Mayoralty
Wooo! Yup

* Conservatives will win the highest vote share nationally but will lose Coventry and gain Reading.
Yes, Yes, No. Reading did go to NOC from Labour control

* Labour will come second nationally but do better in Northern England.
Nope, they came third, did slightly better in the North but gained control of Slough in south. They were decimated in Wales which I did not see happening.

* LibDems will lose Loverpool but stay in third with a net loss of seats.
Lib Dems cam 2nd and had a net gain of seats. They technically lost Liverpool for all of 10 mins, stupid defections

On to the BBC coverage, while the David Dimbleby and the Bloggers bit was great, Jeremy Vine was useless. It was the wee early hours of the morning, only people interested in elections would stay up that late. No need for dumbing down. Its a pity they felt the need to do that.

I also discovered a a lovely bit of software during the elction that was used by ConservativeHome, Guido and Slugger O'Toole. Its called Cover it live. Its free and I will be using it during the Eurovison Semi's and Final so stay tuned

Stupid Defections!

Well it seams I actually got the Liverpool prediction Wrong! All because of a defection!!!!

From the BBC

The Lib Dems have retained control after all - after looking like they were about to lose their grip on power there after a decade. They have lost three seats while Labour gained three, but at the last minute the Lib Dems were joined by Independent Labour councillor Nadia Stewart, therefore restoring its overall majority in the city council by a margin of 46-44.

Thanks to a POLUK player for bringing it to my attention!

UK Local Elections Predictions

I'm making the following Predictions. I wonder will I be right?

* Boris will win the London Mayoralty
* Conservatives will win the highest vote share nationally but will lose Coventry and gain Reading.
* Labour will come second nationally but do better in Northern England.
* LibDems will lose Loverpool but stay in third with a net loss of seats.

It will be a long night for me so I might not get around to blogging tomorrow, but we will see. I may just end up drinking coffee straight from the machine or something!

Eurovision, Semi Final Two: Preview and Predictions

I finally get around to previewing the Second Semi, after I previewed the first one last month. Well it is 40 days to the Second Semi which will take place on Thursday, 22nd of May. Just like the first Semi there are 19 participants. I will again make my Kiss of Death Predictions at the end.

Lets start the show!

1. Iceland (RÚV) represented by Euroband singing "This Is My Life"
Youtube, Lyrics
This song will get the Semi off to a great start. A good fast paced song. The two singers complement each other really well. Its an excellent song, that should do well, do is up against a few pop/dance songs in this Semi, so could face some challenges.

2. Sweden (PVT) represented by Charlotte Perrelli singing "Hero"
Youtube, Lyrics
Charlotte is no stranger to Eurovision having won the 1999 edition for Sweden with "Take Me to Your Heaven". This is her second crack at Eurovision and it is a good song. A nice upbeat pop song, which the Swedes seam to like entering. I think it will do well.

3. Turkey (TRT) represented by Mor ve Ötesi singing "Deli"
Youtube, Lyrics
A rock song! Yay! The first in this semi. Which will set it out from the first two songs, which is important in a music contest. I really like this song, even it is in Turkish. I hope it does well (I used hope, it wont do well! :P ) Its a cool video also.

4. Ukraine (NTU) represented by Ani Lorak singing "Shady Lady"
Youtube, Lyrics
Well we are back with pop/dance songs, coming after Turkey will benifit this song. I am really liking this song. I have Ukrainian friends here, so maybe thats why! NTU picked good with Ani Lorak. It will do well.

5. Lithuania (LRT) represented by Jeronimas Milius singing "Nomads In The Night"
Youtube, Lyrics
The first ballad in this semi, which will probably help Ukraine more then allow this to stand out. I dont like this song. Its too operatic for me. I'm not liking this live version. Maybe Jeronimas will be alright on the night?

6. Albania (RTSH) represented by Olta Boka singing "Zemrën lamë peng"
Youtube, Lyrics
Another ballad, but a better one then Lithuania. I am really liking this song (No, I'm not liking Albania just because they were the only country to vote for Ireland last year!). A very strong chorus, its an impressive song.

7. Switzerland (SRG SSR idée suisse) represented by Paolo Meneguzzi sining "Era Stupendo"
Youtube, Lyrics
Another ballad, but more modern, kind of reminds me of Avril Lavigne. Not sure why! I really like this song. Its melodic, but fast. I think the swiss are on to something here, strange thats its in Italian.

8. Czech Republic (ČT) represented by Tereza Kerndlová sining "Have Some Fun"
Youtube, Lyrics
Back to the pop songs. This is a good entry from the Czechs, but pop songs are becoming dominant in this semi, so it could be hard to qualify for the final. I am liking the song anyway.

9. Belarus (BTRC) represented by Ruslan Alehno singing "Hasta la Vista"
Youtube, Lyrics
Yet another pop song! But its a good one. This semi could prove hard for the pop entries and neighbourly voting could come into it. Its a good song though.

10. Latvia (LTV) respresented by Pirates Of The Sea singing "Wolves Of The Sea"
Youtube, Lyrics
I had to check the date on my Computer, I thought I was back at Karnival! This is the first joke entry for this final, though better then the ones in the first semi final. Its a good song, fast paced and the words make sense, thanks to the costumes! Never knew Latvia had a history of pirates....

11. Croatia (HRT) represented by Kraljevi ulice & 75 cents singing "Romanca"
Youtube, Lyrics
A really nice folksy song. Something that will set it apart in this semi. I dont get the old guy, then again I dont speak serbo-croat (or whatever langauge they are speaking).

12. Bulgaria (BNT) represented by Deep Zone & Balthazar singing "DJ, Take Me Away"
Youtube, Lyrics
Since I came to Germany, I have gotten into Dance/house music as forcasted by some people in YFG! This song is one of my favourites in this semi. It is excellent. I love the start and the rest of the song! Really looking forward to hearing this out if it wins!

13. Denmark (DR) represented by Simon Mathew singing "All Night Long"
Youtube, Lyrics
Now I always love the Danish entry and this year is no exception. It is an excellent sing-a-long type song. I love it.

14. Georgia (GPB) represented by Diana Gurtskaya singing "Peace Will Come"
Youtube, Lyrics
Wow, is all I say. This is a fantastic, powerful ballad. I do mean powerful. Only one other ballad has impressed me this much and that was Poland. If the voting public are in the same mood as last year, this well do very well!

15. Hungary (MTV) represented by Csézy singing "Candlelight"
Youtube, Lyrics
Another ballad from Hungary. Its a nice melodic song and Csézy is a fantastic singer. It has a fabulous chorus and reminds me of those fantatsic Disney ballads.

16. Malta (MBA) represented by Morena singing "Vodka"
Youtube, Lyrics
This song, is one I have mentioned that grows on me. Well it certainly does. Its a fun fast song! A song about alcohol though... hmmm....

17. Cyprus (CyBC) respresented by Evdokia Kadi singing "Femme Fatale"
Youtube, Lyrics
I really like this song as it has a really med feel to it. It also has folk influences, which will always endear it to me! But then it speeds up to make it modern. Its a good song, but no Greek votes in this Semi, so gaurenteed votes for Cyprus.

18. F.Y.R. Macedonia (MKRTV) represented by Tamara ft. Vrcak & Adrian Gaxha singing "Let Me Love You"
Youtube, Lyrics
A nice song from this balkan ecountry. A nice mix modern and folk influences which have been quite to the fore in this semi, but coming after Cyprus coulkd affect that.

19. Portugal (RTP) represented by Vânia Fernandes singing "Senhora do Mar"
Youtube, Lyrics
A ballad to close this semi. Ballads, werent as frequent in this semi as the first one. But do the televoters want another Ballad? It a nice song, but seams fairly bland to me.

So thats it. All 19 entries. Dont forget that France, the UK and Serbia will also be voting in this semi.

Before I give my predictions lets take a look at allkindsofeverthing's predictions for the second semi final. By looking at past voting they came up with the following nine entries

* Ukraine
* Hungary
* Bulgaria
* Sweden
* Malta
* Latvia
* Croatia
* Belarus
* FYR Macedonia

So thats their Predictions but what are mine?

Stephen's Kiss of Death Predictions

So I think the following will get through

* Ukraine
* Sweden
* Bulgaria
* Denmark
* Malta
* Croatia
* Latvia
* Georgia
* FYR Macedonia
* Hungary

There we go. How many will I get right? Time will tell!
---
Source:
Lyrics - Lyrics and Translations
Songs and Running Order - Eurovision Website

Previous Post:
Eurovision Semi-Final One: Preview and Prediction

Eurovision Semi-Final One: Preview and Prediction

Its 49 days to the start of the first part of the Eurovision Song Contest 2008 in Belgrade, Serbia. It will take place on the 20th of May. Here is a short preview of the 19 contestents in the running order of the Songs in Semi-Final 1. I'll make my usual terrible predictions but they may be updated when I get the CD, which is released the end of April.


Entries

1. Montenegro (RTCG) represented by Stefan Filipović, singing "Zauvijek Volim Te"
Youtube, Lyrics
Good song, I like it. Its one you can click your fingers too! A nice song that will do well I think.

2. Israel (IBA) represented by Boaz singing "The Fire In Your Eyes"
Youtube, Lyrics
I really like this song. Good melody and a strong singer. Has a nice med feel to it. Will qualify I think.

3. Estonia (ETV) represented by Kreisiraadio singing "Leto Svet"
Youtube, Lyrics
The first of this years joke entries. Just take a look at the lyrics translation. Terrible song. I hate it.

4. Moldova (TRM) represented by Geta Burlacu singing "A Century Of Love"
Youtube, Lyrics
Nice blues feel to this song, like the Czech Republic last year. A nice song. Geta is a good singer and performs this song very well. One to watch.

5. San Marino (SMRTV) represented by Miodio singing "Complice"
Youtube, Lyrics
Nice rock feel to this song for San Marino's Debut entry. This is my first time listening to it and I am impressed. Its a really good song. I hope it does well. (thes are good looking too! :P )

6. Belgium (VRT) represented by Ishtar singing "O Julissi"
Youtube, Lyrics
This song is in a non-sensical language. The second time Belgium have done this. The last time they did it, they came second. It reminds me of a Disney song for some reason! I like it, its one you can clap along to!

7. Azerbaijan (İctimai) represented by Elnur & Samir singing "Day After Day"
Youtube, Lyrics
This years second debutant. Another rock song, which im really liking, though I am not a fan of the start of the song as I like my ears! I think the rest of the song makes up for it though. Good to see Lordi still having an influence! An excellent song.

8. Slovenia (RTVSLO) represented by Rebeka Dremelj singing "Vrag Naj Vzame"
Youtube, Lyrics
A nice upbeat song. The first one in this Semi, so that could work to its advantage. I really like this song and think it will do well. Rebeka is a good singer and seams full of energy so could be a good performance in Belgrade.

9. Norway (NRK) represnted by Maria Haukaas Storeng singing "Hold On Be Strong"
Youtube, Lyrics
Not sure if this can be classed as a ballad or not. Im saying not at the moment. Its a good song. I love the beat and Maria is a good singer. It dosent really stand out for me at the moment though.

10. Poland (TVP) represented by Isis Gee singing "For Life"
Youtube, Lyrics
Just past the halfway mark and we will have our first ballad, which I normally dont like but Isis is a fantastic singer and I am hugely impressed with this song! I love it and I think it will do well. It is a vast improvement on Polands entry last year.

11. Ireland (RTÉ) represented by Dustin the Turkey singing "Irelande Douze Pointe"
Youtube, Lyrics
No, No, No. Normally my patriotism has kicked in at this point and I would be supporting Ireland, but god no. Everytime I hear this song it drives me barmy!! Though coming mid-point in the show it could do well enough to qualify, but I doubt. Even Dervish were better then this! I dount even Albania would vote for this!

12. Andorra (RTVA) represnted by Gisela singing "Casanova"
Youtube, Lyrics
I really like this fast paced song. It a really good song. I think this will qualify.

13. Bosnia & Herzegovina (BHRT) represented by Laka singing "Pokušaj"
Youtube, Lyrics
I just dont get it! Very strange song. I really dont get the chicken or whats going but, thats eurovision!!! I dont think this will qualify

14. Armenia (AMPTV) represented by Sirusho singing "Qele, Qele"
Youtube, Lyrics
Good upbeat song, kinda infectious beat to it. Im liking it. Sirusho has a great voice also!

15. The Netherlands (NOS) represented by Hind singing "Your Heart Belongs To Me"
Youtube, Lyrics
The Netherlands has decided not to enter a ballad this year! Yay!!! This is an fabulous song. I really like it! It has a nice Spanish feel to it.

16. Finland (YLE) represented by Teräsbetoni singing "Missä Miehet Ratsastaa"
Youtube, Lyrics
If proof was needed that Lordi have influenced any entries this year, then this is the one! Really good song, looks like they will have a distinctive 'style' on stage also! I wonder how well it will do?? Have we moved on from 2006?

17. Romania (TVR) represented by Nico & Vlad singing "Pe-o Margine De Lume"
Youtube, Lyrics
A traditional balled from Romania, which is hugely influenced by lasts years winner. Im kind of disappointed as Romania normally go for something different. But this is a beautiful song. The two singers are well suited to each other and I think this will qualify easily as it is a lovely song.

18. Russia (RTR) represented by Dima Bilan singing "Believe"
Youtube, Lyrics
Dima's second trip to Eurovision. Good modern pop song. Dosent really stand out for me, but I think Russia is more or less sure of qualification. It is a good song though. It improves at the end. Wondering will he hit the high note in Belgrade though?

19. Greece (ERT) represented by Kalomira singing "Secret Combination"
Youtube, Lyrics
The last song in this semi-final and again is a pop song, which could work against it due to being after Russia. It's a nice song though. Greece have a had a few good entries lately and normally do well. This continues there good picks and will do well.


Opinion and Predictions
This Semi looks like it will be a good show with strong ballads from Poland and Romania as well as some rock from Finland and San Marino. Unfortuantely there is the Joke entries, Ireland, Estonia and Bosnia, which is a pity in my opinion as over the last few years Estonia and Bosnia have entered some good songs. I mentioned a previous prediction before from allkindofeverything.ie which based its prediction on past voting patterns and heres a reminder of theirs:

1. Russia
2. Romania
3. Greece
4. Estonia
5. Israel
6. Armenia
7. Finland
8. Netherlands
9. Norway

So who are my picks?

I am going to try and pick the 10 that will qualify including the one selected by the jury vote though not say which one! So here goes Stephen's Kiss of Death Predictions (Nice title eh?). In no particular order.

Poland
Finland
Russia
Israel
San Marino
Norway
Andorra
Greece
Belgium
Armenia

The difference between my predictions this year and last year is that only nine of the entries in this semi-final wont be going through so the odds are better for me! Also dont forget as well as the 19 entrants, Germany and Spain will be voting in this semi-final.

----
Sources:
Lyrics - Lyrics and Translations
Songs and Running Order - Eurovision Website

'My only Fear is voters all over the world will say "vote for the turkey" and people will take it to mean "vote for Turkey" '

Could this be Irelands Downfall? This "fear" was posted on the ToytownGermany Eurovison Thread. Its a good point maybe Dustin should become a Duck for Eurovision? :P

I seam to be in the small minority of people who think that Ireland will not get out of the Semi-Final. Bestbetting (5.4-1) currently have Ireland as favourites to WIN eurovision!?! (Serbia are second). According to Paddy Power Ireland are 1-5 to get out of the Semi and are also favourites to win the contest (4-1)! (They have Ukraine, Romania and Latvia second favourites)

I suppose the huge media interest in Dustin will ensure he is well known across Europe, but will the televoters pluck up the courage to vote for him?

As an Irish person living in Germany, I'm not sure If I will vote for Dustin, but I suppose I will vote for Ireland in the Semi, I'm not so sure about the final though.

Thankfully I have found a prediction that does not agree with the betting odds, though its based on past voting patterns and does not include San Marinos or Azerbaijan votes. Allkindsofeverything.ie in its prediction (its just for fun, but I like to see it as supporting my stance!) the following 9 countries will get through (points in brackets):

1. Russia (108)
2. Romania (94)
3. Greece (91)
4. Estonia (77)
5. Israel (75)
6. Armenia (75)
7. Finland (73)
8. Netherlands (73)
9. Norway (72)
10. Jury Selection

Of course this a pure mathamatical prediction, the songs picked or performances have no sway. 114 points are not allocated (San Marino and Azerbaijan)

Ireland will get 25 points (I wouldnt agree with that) and only gets points from Andorra (2), Armenia (2), Estonia (6), Finland (3), Norway (8) and Romania (4).

Irish votes will go to:
Greece (1)
Israel (2)
Romania (3)
Russia (4)
Slovenia (5)
Poland (6)
Netherlands (7)
Norway (8)
Belgium (10)
Estonia (12)

In theire assement of Ireland its has to following to say (this is in terms of past support)

IRELAND may have the best Eurovision history, but the last few years have been generally disappointing and with all of Ireland's biggest supporters, including the U.K., Lithuania, Hungary and Portugal being involved in the second semi-final, it looks like an Irish entry may not qualify, for the second time in four years. With Irish televoters favourites, the U.K. and Lithuania not in this semi-final field, the Irish points could go to Estonia, Belgium, a country traditionally favoured by the Irish or even Poland, which has a large emigrant population in Ireland.

Stay tuned for (maybe) some live blogging of the German final tonight.

Super Tuesday: More full results 6pm CET

A big gap between the last post and this one and only 2 extra states have 100% of precints reporting. I reliase that Eastern Time US is six hours behind me!

Here we go

Connecticut
Dems: Obama wins here with 51% of the vote giving him 26 delegates. Clinton gains 22delegetes on 47% of the vote.

Reps: McCain easily wins this primary on 52% of the vote. Romney is in second on 33% while Huckabee is a distant third with 7% of the vote.

Massachusetts´
Dems: Both sitting Senators (Sens. Kennedy and Kerry) in Massachusetts have endorsed Obama, and gues who won? Clinton! Clinton gained 56% of the vote complared to Obamas 41%. This gives Clinton 54 delegates and Obama 37.

Reps: This is the state that Romney used to be Govener of. He won here by a margin of 10% over McCain. Romney got 51% of the vote.

So of the states fully declared for the Democrats Obama has won: Delaware, Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota and Connecticut. Clinton has won: Massachusetts, Oklahoma and Tennessee. With 13 states still not 100% reporting, including delegate rich states like California and New York, delegate numbers wont be known till tomorrow Id say.

For the republicans, its all about McCain. He is definatley the front runner in this fight. He won Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma and Connecticut. he is also the projected winner in California and New York. Romney has to go away and think about things. He won in Montana, North Dakota and Massachusetts. Huckabee in the big surprise of the night has won in two states that are 100% reporting including Tennessee and West Virgina. I think the GOP ticket is farily certain now. Im predicting a McCain/Huckabee ticket for the Republican Party Nomination. I am notourisly bad at predictions especially Eurovision, but as my last prediction was Guiliani (who since dropped out) I have had to change!

US Election 2008

The Iowa Caucus is tonight, which marks the start of the US Election Cycle.

Im now going to make some predictions for the US Election and just like Eurovision I will get it completely wrong!!

So the Republican Nominee will be Guiliani and the Democratic Nominee will be Clinton.

The Republicans will win the following states:

AK 3
TX 34
MT 3
ID 4
WY 3
UT 5
AZ 10
ND 3
SD 3
NE 5
KS 6
OK 7
LA 9
MS 6
GA 15
AL 9
SC 8
WV 5
ID 11
FL 27
NM 5
NV 5
PA 21
TN 11
NC 15
KY 8

Total 241 Electoral College votes

Democrats Will win
CO 9
CA 55
OR 7
WA 11
DC 3
HI 4
MN 10
IA 7
MO 11
AR 6
WI 10
IL 21
MI 17
OH 20
VA 13
CT 7
MD 10
DE 3
NJ 15
NY 31
NH 4
ME 4
MA 12
VT 3
RI 4

Total 297 Electoral College Votes

The Next president IMO will be a Democrat. Im saying Clinton...

Battleground states

Wikipedia list the following as Swing States

Northeast

* New Hampshire (4-D): Once very reliably Republican, New Hampshire became a swing state in the 1990s. Republicans still have somewhat of an edge in statewide elections, however the Democrats took control of the state legislature and both Congressional seats in 2006. The New Hampshire Republican Party tends to be more socially liberal than the national party, and as a result their behavior in national elections is harder to determine.

* Pennsylvania (21-D): Pennsylvania is famously described by Democratic strategist James Carville as "you’ve got Philadelphia at one end of the state, Pittsburgh at the other end, and Alabama in the middle.”[5] Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Pedro A. Cortés stated on March 17, 2007, that "The commonwealth’s large number of electoral college votes and diverse population make Pennsylvania a key battleground state." [6] Pennsylvania has leaned Democratic since 1992, giving its electoral votes to Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996), Al Gore (2000) and John Kerry (2004). President George W. Bush visited the state more than 40 times during his 2004 campaign.[7]

South

* Arkansas (6-R): Although a conservative state in the heart of the Bible Belt, the Democratic Party is a powerful force in Arkansas and Democrats tend to have a comfortable advantage in statewide races. Presently, the Governor, both U.S. Senators, and 3 out of 4 of the Arkansas' House members are Democrats, and Democrats control the state legislature by a large margin. The Arkansas Democratic Party tends to be more conservative than the national party, however, and as a result voters there tend to be open to Republican Presidential candidates. Though favorite son Bill Clinton won Arkansas easily both times he ran, Arkansas gave their electoral votes to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 by a fairly large margin.

* Florida (27-R): The outcome of the 2000 Presidential Election hung on a margin of roughly 500 votes in this state, and the fierce legal battles that ensued. Florida's electorate is balanced by heavily Democratic large cities like Miami and sparser, more Republican areas (the Florida Panhandle in this case). Republicans have been winning handily in statewide elections lately; however, the large Hispanic vote near Tampa and Orlando (particularly Puerto Ricans who tend to be the Democrats and have a significant presence in the Orlando area) provide Democrats an edge, but the Cuban-American vote is crucial near Miami; their votes gave an edge to George W. Bush over Al Gore in 2000.

* Virginia (13-R): No Democratic presidential candidate has won Virginia since Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, and it was the only Southern state that went Republican in 1976. Virginia is no longer as reliably Republican as it once was, as evidenced by two successive Democratic gubernatorial victories in 2001 and 2005 and Jim Webb's narrow victory in the 2006 Senate race against incumbent Republican George Allen. Also, Northern Virginia, the rapidly growing region of the state tends to lean Democratic.
o September 13, 2007, former Virginia governor and Democrat Mark Warner announced he will run for the Senate in 2008 for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner. [1]

Midwest

* Iowa (7-R): Al Gore won Iowa in 2000 by a razor-thin margin, and George W. Bush did the same four years later. The state's highly influential caucus makes Iowa the political holy grail of Republicans and Democrats alike.

* Michigan (17-D): Michigan has generally tended to lean Democratic. One of the country's biggest centers of manufacturing, labor unions inevitably come into play, and the economic hard times the state has fallen on recently will no doubt be a major issue for the Great Lakes State in 2008. Republican strength tends to be primarily in the western portion of the lower peninsula of the state. (In particular in the Grand Rapids Metropolitan area which is also one of the fastest growing regions in the Midwest.) While the Democrats are strong in the Southeastern region of the state around the Metro Detroit area in particular and also around the Ann Arbor, Flint, and Saginaw areas as well.

* Minnesota (10-D): Minnesota's transformation into a swing state is a surprising one, given how fervently Democratic the North Star State once was - it was the only state in the country that did not vote for Ronald Reagan in 1984. A strong tradition of populism and labor unions made it difficult for Republicans to have any real success there until recently; the recent competitiveness is due to the ever expanding suburbs of the Twin Cities and exurbs outside of the Twin Cities area. Republicans picked Saint Paul as the site for the 2008 Republican National Convention in September 2008.

* Missouri (11-R): Missouri is geographically situated where the South, the Midwest, and the Great Plains meet, and is in many ways a microcosm of the entire country. Missouri has voted for the winner of every Presidential election since 1904 except 1956, and voters there have proven themselves to be an effective gauge of the national mood. Like the country as a whole, the "coastal" urban areas of St Louis and Kansas City tend to lean strongly to the Democrats while the rural and suburban/exurban areas tend to lean to the Republicans.

* Ohio (20-R): "I think 2008 is very likely to be a hotly contested race in Ohio," stated Eric Rademacher, director of the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, for the Cincinnati Enquirer. [8] Its 20 electoral votes were critical to President Bush's reelection in 2004. In 2006, however, Ohio voters elected Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown for Governor and U.S. Senator. The industrial urban areas of Cleveland, Dayton, Akron, and Youngstown tend to lean to the Democrats while the rural areas and the suburbs and exurbs (in particular around the ever growing Greater Cincinnati and Columbus areas) lean more to the Republicans.

* Wisconsin (10-D): Wisconsin has narrowly gone to Democratic candidates since 1988, which is somewhat ironic considering that the Republican Party was founded there. The Republicans lost their advantage in Wisconsin in the late 19th century when perceived nativist sentiments - particularly the Bennett Law - alienated the state's large German-American population. Southern Wisconsin has a strong progressive tradition, and elected the country's only current openly lesbian U.S. Congresswoman, Tammy Baldwin.

West/Pacific

* Colorado (9-R): Once a reliable GOP stronghold, Colorado has started to steer towards the center during the last decade, where moderate stances have come to prevail. With the victories of Ken Salazar to the U.S. Senate in 2004, Bill Ritter to the Governor's Mansion in 2006 along with an additional U.S. House seat pick-up that same year, Democrats are finding themselves in a better position than before. Large Hispanic populations with strong penchant for populist themes makes this a true battleground state; however Republicans have a 100,000 registration edge against the Democrats. Democrats selected Denver as the site for the 2008 Democratic National Convention.

* Nevada (5-R): Usually considered a "fly-over" state due to its proximity to California with candidates looking for more exposure on the coast, the Silver State is once again looking like a strong swing state. Mormon populations make a decisive vote for the GOP while the presence of strong labor unions and Hispanic voters sway them towards the Democrats in areas like Las Vegas and Reno. A GOP bastion, the state has turned its tide for more populist themes.

* New Mexico (5-R): A classic swing state, personalities trump party affiliation in this western state. New Mexico is truly politically divided, with registration amongst Democrats and Republicans nearly equal and the existence of a strong Independent voting bloc. The state went to Al Gore in 2000 by a mere 400 votes while George W. Bush carried it by a margin of 6000 votes in 2004.

* Oregon (7-D): A Democratic-leaning state, the belief of anti-big government along with strong opposition to central government control, makes Oregon a GOP favorite; however, intense beliefs in civil liberties and liberal ideology on social issues such as abortion and gay rights often leads it to side with the Democrats. The state has gone to the Democrats from the 1988 election onward.

I must say I agree with Wikipedia and not 270towin which dosent list CO as a swing state! though it does have a really cool interactive map!

Eurovision Final!!! Preview

Well last nights semi was very surprising, only 1 of my predictions got through and that was Turkey, which means no Switzerland, Austria, Belgium, Norway, Denmark or Andorra (my favourites). I voted for Andorra and Denmark, I think my predictions are a kiss of death. I got 4 right last year. Anyway the final is on tomorrow night on RTÉ2 and BBC 2 at 8:00pm. I shall be Instinct watching it on the big screen, so if your around come say hi! Now I'll run through the finalists, with links to their songs and their betting odds from paddypower.com.

Bosnia & Herzegovina (Youtube) 80-1

This year Bosnia and Herzegovina is represented by Marija Sestic with 'Rijeka Bez Imena'. A nice uplifting song. Don't think it will do well.

Spain (Youtube) 66-1

Spain is represented by D'nash with 'I love you mi vida'. Really upbeat song, surprised its so low in the odds, as one of the big four its guaranteed to be in the final next year. A song that I really like!

Belarus (Youtube) 4-1

The first to qualifiers from last nights semi-final, meant to pick this to get through but too late now.... I missed the performance as i was rushing home from work, but Dmitry Koldun obviously impressed with 'Work Your Magic'

Ireland 33-1


Have to show the video, its the Irish entry! Its Dervish with 'They Can't Stop The Spring'. Not in my opinion a great Eurovision song, but they've done a lot of work on it and its sounding great! Could do well as Dervish are known on the continent!

Finland (Youtube) 25-1

Well Finland is represented by Hanna Pakarinen with 'Leave Me Alone'. Its definitely a Lordi influence, why change a winning formula??

FYR Macedonia (Youtube) 40-1

Macedonia qualified last night with 'Mojot Svet' by Karolina Goceva. Nice song! Did very well last night.

Slovenia (Youtube) 25-1

Slovenia also qualified from last night. Very opera as a friend in Kildare remarked last night!!! Its Alenka Gotar with 'Cvet Z Juga'

Hungary (Youtube) 16-1

Hungary also qualified last night represented by Magdi Ruzsa with 'Unsubstantial Blues'. An excellent performance, and should do well. Loving this song.

Lithuania (Youtube) 150-1

An outsider according to the bookies, Lithuania is represented by 4Fun with 'Love Or Leave'. very gentle melodic song. Latin influences definitely to be heard in the beat and guitar.

Greece (Youtube) 16-1

One of my favourite songs in the final its Sarbel with 'Yassou Maria'. In with a good shout, hes gorgeous!!! Real dance one!

Georgia (Youtube) 40-1

Georgia, through the final on their first try! Sopho was fab with 'Visionary Dream'

Sweden (Youtube) 6-1

One of this years favourites (and my mums!) its Sweden represented by the Ark with 'The worrying kind'. With the ESC move next door to Sweden? I hope so, my hopes are on this one at the moment (Spillane kiss of death again?) come on Sweden!!!!!!!!

France (Youtube) 50-1

One of the best French entries in recent years! They are represented by Les Fatals Picards with 'L'amour à la française'. I really like. As ferance is part of the bug four they are automatically in next year!

Latvia (Youtube) 14-1

This proved very popular and performed in the coveted last place in the show. Good odds here and looks like they ahve a shoe in!

Russia (Youtube) 10-1

Russia is represented by Serebro with 'Song Number One'. Really good song, i really like it!! Wonder will win it? Russia have been waiting awhile for it.

Germany (Youtube) 14-1

Germany, another one of the Big 4, is represented by Roger Cicero with 'Frauen Regier'n Die Welt'. Its a very rat pack song. Think it will do well, its growing on me!

Serbia (Youtube) 5-1

One this years favourites, performed very well last night, hence why its here!!! Its Marija Serifovic with 'Molitva'. What a singer!

Ukraine (Youtube) 7-2

This year the Ukraine are represented by Verka Serdyuchka with 'Dancing Lasha Tumbai'. Very strange song, but fun! Its a guy btw... there was war over that!!! They are also the favourites i think (I get very confused with odds like 7-2!)

United Kingdom (Youtube) 33-1

Its Scooch! Singing 'Flying the flag for You'. Loving this song!! So gay! lol!!! It should do well!

Romania (Youtube) 40-1

Romania is represented by Todomondo with 'Liubi, Liubi, I Love You'. Really nice song. Its sung in a few languages so its great fun!!!! Hope it does well!!!

Bulgaria (Youtube) 8-1

Well Elitsa & Stoyan got in with 'Water'. I missed the performance, but i still dont like the song!

Turkey (Youtube) 25-1

My only prediction to get in! Its Kenan DOĞULU with 'Shake It Up Shekerim'! Went down very well last night and I enjoyed the performance, it with a good shout!!!

Armenia (Youtube) 80-1

An outsider in the betting, Armenia is represented by Hayko with 'Anytime You Need'. Hes quite good looking! NIce ballad of song, but no fast paced chorus, cant see it doing well!

Moldova (Youtube) 25-1

Was she wearing a pants last night? Thought it was going to fall off her! Natalia Barbu with 'Fight' qualified for Moldova last night. It was a giood performance!!

Well thats it. I've given sweden the kiss of death, who do you think will win? Leave a comment or email me!

Eurovision!!! Semi-Final Preview

Well its nearly time wooo! The 52nd Eurovision Song Contest will be broadcast from the Hartswall Areena, Helsinki, Finland and will be shown on RTÉ 2 and BBC Three at 8.00pm. This is the largest contest ever, so this will be a long post on the Semi-Finalist. The countries are listed in running order.

Bulgaria (Song on youtube)

Bulgaria this year is being represented by Elitsa TODOROVA and Stoyan YANKOULOV with a song called 'Water'. Its is a very rhythmic song with haunting singing. Its fast paced so should go down well. Just not my cup of tea.

Israel (Song on youtube)

Israel is being represented by a group called Teapacks with a song called 'Push the Button'. A very strong about terrorist's (Israel knows all about this). Its in English and French. I don't like it. Its not very often I like the Israeli song neway...

Cyprus (Youtube)

Cyprus is being represented by Evridiki with a French language song 'Comme Ci, Comme Ça' (which means okay). Its a good song, one of my favs this year. Good fast dance tune! one to dance to!

Belarus (Youtube)

Belarus is being represented this year by Koldun (HOT!) with a song called 'Work Your Magic'. One of the best entries from the Belorussians in recent years. Its a nice song, along the lines of the Rasmus et al. I really like it and may have to do a post on Dmitry Koldun over on my other blog . lol

Iceland (Youtube)

Iceland is represented this year by Eiríkur HAUKSSON with 'Valentine Lost'. Slow rock song, cant see it getting out of the semi's. Its a pity cause I've really enjoyed past Icelandic entries especially last years!

Georgia (Youtube)

The first débutante in this years contest is Georgia represented by Sopho with 'Visionary Dream'. Its a very good song. Real melting pot of new and old, and east meets west. Could do very well. Sopho, is a very excellent sing also.

Montenegro (Youtube)

Another débutante, but only by default! Montenegro normally takes part as part of Serbia and Montenegro. This year, since they are now independent, they are represented by Stevan Faddy with 'Ajde Kroci'. Tis a realy good song, which i enjoy.

Switzerland (Youtube)

One of this year favourites and mine too! Switzerland is represented this year by DJ Bobo with 'Vampires are Alive'. Love this song, and is proving very popular! Should do well during and after the contest!

Moldova (Youtube)

The Moldovan entry this year is Natalia Barbu with 'Fight'. A very good song, nice with rock backing. Lordi really have influenced alot of entries this year.

The Netherlands (Youtube)

Now the Netherlands is represented by Edsilia Rombley with 'On Top of the World'. Now the dutch have learned a bit, their song starts out like a ballad but speeds up, thank god, a nice song, but i dont think it will do well enough to get out of the semi's.

Albania (Youtube)

Albania is represented by Aida & Frederik Ndoci with 'Hear my plea'. A very traditional song, not in the current eurovision mould at all...

Denmark (Youtube)

Denmark song is fab this year. They are represented by DQ with 'Drama Queen'. The first of the draq queens! I love this song and I hope it does well!!

Croatia (Youtube)

Croatia is represented by Dragonfly feat. Dado Topic with 'Vjerujem u ljubav'. Nice song, not eurovisiony in my mind, but then again neither was lordi....

Poland (Youtube)

Poland is represented with the Jet Set with 'Time to Party'. Nice song, fast paced. Good Party Song.

Serbia (Youtube)

Serbia, like Montenegro, is taking part on its own this year. They are represented by Marija Serifovic with 'Molitva'. A ballad, in the traditional sense, cant see it getting out of the semi's but it will get the neighbourly votes...

Czech Republic (Youtube)

Another débutante, the Czech Republic is represented by Kabát with 'Malá dáma'. Its very much in the Lordi vein of Eurovision! Good rock song!

Portugal (Youtube)

The Portuguese are back on form after last years terrible entry. They are represented by Sabrina with 'Dança Comigo'. Good song, with a latin 'shake your hips' feel to it.

FYR Macedonia (Youtube)

the FYR this year is represented by Karolina Goceva with 'Mojot Svet'. An excellent song, with the easy bit to sing along with! "Najna najna, nanana najna" :D

Norway (Youtube)

Another one of my favourites from this year. Norway is represented by Guri Schanke with 'Ven A Bailar'. An excellent song, have being listening to it alot. SO has grown on me hugely. hopefully Norway will not get nil points again this year....

Malta (Youtube)

This year Malta is represented by Olivia Lewis with 'Vertigo' (not the U2 song obv!). Not an excellent song, but should do respectfully enough cant see it getting out of the semi's, considering competition is really though this year!

Andorra (Youtube)

Now the Andorrans really have payed attention to whats popular at the moment musically. They are respresented by Anonymous with 'Salvem el món (Let's save the world)'. Real punk rock (my fav) and I hope does well for the Principality!!!

Hungary (Youtube)

Hungary are represented by Magdi Ruzsa with 'Unsubstantial Blues'. Now this is different. Full of soul and feeling, but not your traditional ballad. One that has gotten into my heart I must say.

Estonia (Youtube)

Estonia is represented by Gerli Padar with 'Partners In Crime'. A song in the real Eurovision vein. Easy listening, and fun!

Belgium (Youtube)

The Belgians are being represented this year by KMG's with 'Love Power'. Now this is a real Danascene song (Cork regulars to freakscene will get that reference). It has a real retro feel to it, and i like....

Slovenia (Youtube)

Slovenia is being represented by Alenka Gotar with 'Cvet Z Juga'. Now the Slovenians havent departed much from their usual type of entry, traditional sounding song, with a fast backing track!

Turkey (Youtube)

Turkey is represented this year by Kenan DOĞULU with 'Shake It Up Shekerim'. Turkey always have good songs IMO, this has a Justin Timberlake meets East feel to it. An excellent song!

Austria (Youtube)

Austria are back after a one year sabbatical with Eric Papilaya singing 'Get A Life, Get Alive'. An excellent fast paced song, upbeat and fun! Hope it does well!

Latvia (Youtube)

Last but not least we have Latvia, represented by Bonaparti.lv with 'Questa Notte'. Opera comes to Eurovision! It is a Latvian version of Il Divo, its a nice song, but will it do well? It a bit of gamble

My hopes. The ten songs I hope get through are
Austria
Switzerland
Andorra
Turkey
Norway
Belgium
Estonia
Denmark
Montenegro
Portugal

Enjoy the show tonight. Feel free to leave your predictions as comments or disagree with me on anything!

US Mid-Term Elections

Found these on electoral-vote.com and think there a great way too keep an eye on how things are progressing. I hope the democrats gain control of congress (even if its just the house). It'll make US Politics even more interesting!!!