Election 2007

Irish election have an interesting post on the next general election. The tribune (registration required, Free Trial) have a story on the key constituencies in the election.

Over all the following is predicted:

Predicted State of the Parties:

FF: 75 (-6)

FG: 40 (+9)

Lab: 20 (-1)

Green Party: 8 (+2)

PDs: 6 (-2)

Sinn Fein: 6 (+1)

Socialists: 2 (+2)

Other: 9 (-4)

That leaves the following governmental possibilities
FF/PD/Ind
FF/SF/Ind

Fianna Fail will need 8 extra seats to get to the magic 83, but will they stick with the PD's or try it with Sinn Féin, that'll be interesting.

FG/Lab emerge with 60 seats and with the Greens on 8 it will them well short of forming a government.

For my own constituency the Tribune has this to say

Prediction: 2 FF and 1 FG (No change) Cork South-Central The transfer of Ballincollig to Cork North West will put pressure on FF to retain its three seats. However, even allowing for this, FG needs to increase its share of the vote by 10% to regain the seat lost in 2002. Effectively it will need the lion's share of Kathy Sinnott's 2002 vote. FF will have no difficulty taking two seats and FG is guaranteed one. Dan Boyle is likely to retain the Greens' seat. The last seat will be a battle between the two largest parties and determined by the transfers of Labour and the PDs. Hard to call but Fine Gael need this one badly.

and Irish Election predict:

Cork South Central - Fine Gael gain one from Fianna Fail

My prediction for Cork South Central:
***in no particular order***
- Simon Coveney (FG) Guaranteed I think after his Euro campaign
- Micheal Martin (FF) Huge popular vote
- Deirdre Clune (FG)Gaining in popularity since stint as Lord Mayor
- Dan Boyle (Green) Well known, so should do well
- Michael McGrath (FF) will pick up on transfers from Martin, Dennehy and maybe Mininhan

Dennehy (FF) wont be elected as he barely got in last year, Ciaran Lynch (lab) will do well but will get pipped at the post for the last seat I think. Minihan, personally I don't like the PD's (Sorry Sam) and I dont know many in CSC willing to vote for them. Henry Cremin (SF) will do okay, but not enough to be in contention. Jerry Buttimer (FG) will fight every tooth and nail to get in, but I cant see FG getting 3 seats.

Lets see how my prediction goes!