Gender Parity? What about voters choice?

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The Labour Party published its Electoral (Gender Parity) Bill today (See RTÉ for details) which will cut state funding to party who dont put forward a certain percentage of female candidates. From what I see from my expeirence in political parties, that when women put themselevs forward for candidature they invariable get selected, not because women vote for them but because men vote for them! I attended conventions for three electoral areas for the upcoming local elections and a woman did not put herself forward for election.

Its not for lack of support within Fine Gael, there is a strong womens group within Fine Gael and there is a large number of female officers on the various boards in Cork FIne Gael (As well as two female Councillors on Cork City Council) so to me there is very little political opposition to women candidates. The biggest downfall for women candidates is actually the female vote. Women dont vote for women, according to a study I read before Older Men are more likely to vote for women then women are!

Gender quota's wont work, they lead to token women candidates who have no opportunity to get elected. Also bringing in a bill like this challenges how parties select candidates. For example in Fine Gael, it is members in the constituency that get to vote and choose the candidate, this bill will take that power away from locals and put in the hands of head office. Something which hasn't worked to great effect for Fianna Fail.

Any gender parity is a no hoper in my opinion.

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Poll in Tomorrows Sunday Business Post

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I have been sent the results of a poll that will be published in tomorrows Sunday Business Post. The headline figures are:

Fianna Fail: 23 (-5)
Fine Gael: 30 (-3)
Labour: 22 (+8)
Greens: 6 (-2)
Sinn Fein: 11 (+2)
Independents: 8

There has also been a small change in the figures on support if the Lisbon Treaty which now show a 70-30 split in favour.

When this poll is compared with Fridays poll in the Indo, the numbers are largely similar. Fine Gael and Labour sit on the same, while Fianna Fail are lower in this poll.

The big winners in the latest opinion polls are Labour and Sinn Fein who have both increase their vote share consistently. Fine Gael, have come down in the polls marginally and seam to be hovering around the 30% mark. The Greens are starting to suffer from Collateral damage and are loosing ground in the polls. It is interesting to see if this will continue and if the party leadership will move to stem this.

The elections this year will be quite interesting if these patterns continue and looking back, I think they will.

UPDATE: I had this up ten Minutes before RTÉ sweet! :) Look at publish times (18:03 to 18:15!)

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Is it right that a Political Party Owns LGBT.ie???

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I was contacted after a tweet by Mark Coughlan about the ownership of a .ie domain. The Domain in is LGBT.ie and it is, according to the IE Domain Registry owned by the Irish Labour Party and is registered as a "Discretionary Name"

If you visit the site you get redirected to Labours homepage? Now is it right that a political party owns this and redirects it to their site? I don't think so? I am not saying that as a party political hack (what use would Fine Gael or Fianna Fail have for that site) but as a former Gay Activist (I've toned it down an awful lot, most of my activism is by me for me now a days). No political party should own that domain.

While I agree Labour LGBT and the Labour Party in general have been a fantastic supporter of the Gay Community and Gay Rights, but does it give them the right to this domain? I don't think so!

GLEN or the NGLF or some sort of Gay community or a website to co-ordinate all the other ones should be on that domain. It should not be a redirect to the Labour Home Page!

PS: You can follow me on Twitter here

Indo Poll Results

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There is an IMS Poll in the Indo tomorrow and the Results are quite interesting. The headline figures are: Fine Gael are on 30%, Fianna Fail are on 25%, Labour are on 22%, Greens are on 5%, Sinn Fein are on 7% and Independents are on 10%.

In terms of Government satisfaction only 10% of respondents are satisfied compared with 86% dissatisfied with the Government.

On the question of a General Election 52% of people want an election while 40% do not one.

This is the first IMS poll to show FG ahead and the 6th poll to show FG in the lead. More interesting times ahead.

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Conservative Ads

Image via WikipediaThe Conservative Party in the UK have launched a new Advertising campaign on "Labour's Debt Crisis". According to the Conservatives Shadow Chancellor each child born in Britain will owe £17,000. I must say it is a fantastic campaign. It really hits the point on UK Debt. I agree with John over on Semper-Idem that FG need to be developing campaigns like this. The Budget campaign that they did before Christmas is something that could easily be further developed into this. Anyway check out the videos below.

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Another Week, Another Poll

Following on from the last TNS/MRBI poll, the Sunday Business Post has a Red C poll today. It is a week early to avoid a bounce from the Fine Gael National Conference this weekend. The headline figures are:

Fine Gael 35% (+2)
Fianna Fáil 30% (+4)
Labour 14% (-1)
Sinn Féin 8% (-2)
Inds 8% (no change)
Greens 5% (-1)

The poll also showed that around half of former PD voters will vote Fine Gael.

h/t: Irish Election

FG cement gains in new poll

There is a poll in the Irish Times tomorrow and I have been sent the topline figures. I assume it has been carried aout by TNS/MRB which bears out the poll in last months Sunday Business Post

Fianna Fail: 27 (-15)
Fine Gael: 34 (+11)
Labour: 14 (-1)

I'll update this with the other parties when I get the times tomorrow.

Leader satisfaction ratings show a big drop for Brian Cowen plummeting 21% to a satisfaction rating of 26%. Enda Kenny also sees a fall of 2% to 33% while Eamon Gilmore rises 3% to 38%.

Fianna Fail seams to be the big losers from the budget seeing their support drop a massive 15% with Fine Gael beeing the major benifactor. I am looking forward to seeing the numbers on the Green Party to see will they go the same way as the PD's or will people associate them with the Budget. More on this tomorrow

Ireland South: A look ahead

So a thread over on Machine Nation got me thinking ahead to next June's European Elections. Some parties, including the Greens, Labour and Sinn Fein have selected their candidates. FF are a foregone conclusion with FG the only major party left to select. Of course Kathy Sinnott will run again. Libertas who say it is "substantially correct" that they have registered as a European Political Party.

So who is running (in no particular order):
Labour (Party of European Socialists) are running Senator Alan Kelly from Tipperary. He was elected on the Agricultural Panel to the Seanad.

Greens (European Greens–European Free Alliance) are running Dan Boyle their leader in Seanad Eireann and Chairman. He was appointed to the Seanad following the loss of his seat in Cork South Central in the 2007 General Election.

I assume Fianna Fail (Union for Europe of the Nations) are running Brian Crowley MEP who is the leader of the UEN in the European Parliament. Brian was first elected in 1994 and has held it since.

Sinn Fein (European United Left–Nordic Green Left) are running Cllr. Toireasa Ferris, former Cathaoirleach of Kerry County Council. Her father, Martin Ferris, is the Sinn Féin TD for Kerry North.

Fine Gael (European People's Party-European Democrats) still have time to decide between Colm Burke, who was co-opted to replace Simon Coveney TD, and former GAA President Sean Kelly. Burke is a former Lord Mayor of Cork with a long history of serving the people of Cork. Kelly on the otherhand will be well known around teh constituency so that convention should be interesting.

Kathy Sinnott MEP (Independence/Democracy) is also expected to run again as she currently heads up the Ind/Dem group in the European Parliament. She ran in the General Election back in 2002 and narrowly lost out on a seat in Cork South Central. She was elected to the European Parliament in 2004.

Thats all the candidates I know of. Other candidates may be announced and I will endeavor to keep this list updated!

UK Local Elections PEB

Via PoliticsHome, I found this. Boris's PEB. It will air tonight on BBC London at 19:00.



Tis interesting to watch.

I cant find Ken's PEB, I watched that last night, it was interesting. Here is Labours PEB one for the Local Election.



Currently looking for the Conservative PEB which should air on BBC (not BBC London, which is the one I watch) tonight at 19:00

Sould Brown have called an Election and the Future of the Lib Dems

Wow, two days of blog posts, I'm back as a serious blogger!!! :-D

But anyway back to the title. Gordon Brown, has said 'no' to an election. Was that a good decision?

Due to the comments of the 'young turks', Balls et al, saying Labour where on a election footing and that. This draw back from the brink could have long term damage for Brown and Labour in general as it did for O'Callaghan. The Tories will definitely gain from this as they said 'Bring it on'. David Cameron is on the up and up.

Now if an election had been called, it would not have benefited the Lib Dems, as they are being squeezed by the two major parties and to top it off, they have gotten rid of their leader after 18 months!!! Sir Ming was an excellent leader for the Lib Dems, and its internal bickering like this that turn people off the Lib Dems. I myself am thinking of switching to the Tories. Then again I'm not an dedicated Lib Dem supporter, but I thought they were fresh and interesting compared to Labour and the Tories. But DC has changed the Conservative Party, it is now fresh and interesting, and is certainly winning people over no matter what the polls say.

At the end of the Day the 'honeymoon' is over for Brown, he needs to set out a good set of proposals in the Queens Speech at the State Opening of Parliament on the 6th of November. Its a Tuesday so hopefully I will be watching it and will blog about it.

Rabbite to resign

Pat Rabbite looks likely to resign at 3:30pm today! Could be an interesting leadership election!

Breakingnews: http://breakingnews.ie/ireland/mhcweyqlgbmh/
Ireland.com: http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/breaking/2007/0823/breaking40.htm
Rte.ie: http://rte.ie/news/2007/0823/labour.html

Civil Unions Bill 2007 - Get Lobbying!

On Wednesday evening, the Dail votes on the Labour Party Civil Union Bill, proposed by Brendan Howlin, TD.
Based on USI's lobbying to date, we estimate that we have around 70 of the required 83 votes for the bill to pass this stage. The Government will decide at Cabinet tomorrow (Tuesday) its position on the bill. If the Government opposes it, and they likely will, that will mean that unless we can find 15 TDs on the Government benches to support it, the bill will be defeated.

USI has identified the following TDs as members who may support the bill if pressure is applied. Between now and Wednesday, we need you to circulate this email to everyone on your mailing list, and ask them to contact these TDs before Wednesday, asking them to switch sides and support the bill.
Even if only one or two do so, it will be a big story, and a massive boost to the campaign. John Mc Guirk and I have spent the day ringing, emailing, and faxing party whips, individual TDs, press offices, and anyone who would listen to us!!

Remember, fax, email, and phone these TDs constantly and ask them to VOTE YES on the Labour Party Civil Unions Bill.


Sile De Valera – FF 01 6183000 sile.devalera@oireachtas.ie

Dennis O'Donovan – FF 01 61833079 dennis.odonovan@oireachtas.ie

Dermot Fitzpatrick – FF 01 6183699 dermot.fitzpatrick@oireachtas.ie

Jim Glennon – FF 01 6183910 jim.glennon@oireachtas.ie

Barry Andrews – FF 01 6183856 barry.andrews@oireachtas.ie

Fiona O'Malley – PD 01 6183062 fiona.omalley@oireachtas.ie

Peter Power – FF 01 6184232 peter.power@oireachtas.ie

Mae Sexton – PD 01 6183361 mae.sexton@oireachtas.ie

Mildred Fox – IND 01 6183548 mildred.fox@oireachtas.ie

Jerry Cowley – IND 01 6184050 jerry.cowley@oireachtas.ie

Marian Harkin – IND 071 9145890 marian.harkin@oireachtas.ie

Morning Briefing, 16th February

Dia Duit

An nuacht ar an maidin seo.

The row over the cost of the Mahon Tribunal continues today (Breakingnews) with Judge Mahon saying the tribunal will only cost €300m, maybe less. Also Labour are getting in on the act (RTÉ) saying that the government are trying to delay the tribunal. Well d'uh

Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed a former rebel as President of Chechnya (France 24) Pity he wasn't elected.

Serbia has rejected the UN plan for Kosovo (CNN). Surprise surprise. I can't see any Serbian parliament accepting independence, virtual or not, for Kosovo.

North Koreans are celebrating Kim Jong-Il 65th birthday (France 24). Though state media in north korea seam to warning about a military threat from the US. I don't see how they can invade as the armed forces are stretched to the limit Iraq and Afghanistan.

The US House of Representatives is due to vote on a resolution against the troop surge in Iraq today. (CNN)Also House speaker Nancy Pelosi has stated that "Bush lacks authority to invade Iran"

The European Parliament has adopted a report which implicates 13 member states in cooperating with CIA rendition flights (France 24) The national governments specifically criticised for their unwillingness to cooperate with Parliament's investigations were those of Austria, Italy, Poland, Portugal and the UK. The report also gives detailed evidence of investigations of illegal rendition or CIA flight cases involving Germany, Sweden, Spain, Ireland, Greece, Cyprus, Denmark, Turkey, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Bosnia and Romania (EU Parliament Website)

Thats it for now!

Slán!

E-mail to TD's on Civil Union Bill

Deputy,

I am writing to you on a matter of extreme urgency. The Labour Parties Bill on Civil Unions is due before the Dáil next week, and is due to go for a vote on Wednesday. I urge you as a concerned constituent to vote for this bill as it will vastly improve the quality of life for many Lesbian and Gay couples who are in a current state of legal limbo, in regards to partnership rights. Also if you vote for this measure I will encourage family and friends to consider voting for you at the upcoming election.


I look forward to hearing from you on this issue.

Yours in Pride
--
Stephen Spillane
Southern Area Officer
Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgendered Working Group


Stíofán O'Spealáin
Oifigiúil Ceantair an Deiscirt
Grúpa Obair na Leispiach, na Homaighnéasach, na Déghnéasach & na Transghnéasach


Please send an email to your representatives

How TDs Vote on Civil Unions Bill Could Affect Their Election Prospects - USI

The Union of Students in Ireland (USI) has preannounced an audit of TDs’ votes For/Against the Civil Unions Bill when voting takes place in the Dáil next Wednesday, 21st February.

Students are to note precisely which TDs try to block the legislation in the Second Stage vote.

The Civil Unions Bill would end discrimination against lesbian and gay people in many areas of law.

As students prepare to consider the audit’s findings, USI urges TDs to bear in mind that the “overwhelming majority” of the public support Civil Union legislation [1].

USI lesbian and gay spokesperson Steve Conlon said: “Students will look to see how every individual TD votes on this legislation. Simply, we regard attitudes towards Civil Union legislation as a litmus test of TDs’ support for fairness and equality. Those who vote ‘Nay’ vote to oppose these principles.

“Because lesbian and gay people cannot currently enter into a Civil Union or marry, they are subjected to statutory discrimination in many areas. The proposed Bill is a means to end this discrimination.

“Civil Unions are not the same as marriages, and USI continues to seek justice for same-sex couples who should have the right to marry in this State. Nevertheless, Civil Union legislation would improve the State’s treatment of lesbian and gay people, creating a better society for all.”

USI President Colm Hamrogue said: “In a very meaningful sense, all eyes will be on TDs on Tuesday when this Bill is debated, and especially on Wednesday when they will vote.

“The Labour Party is to be commended for sponsoring such an important piece of legislation.

“By publicly announcing an audit of how each individual TD votes – and communicating this to students across Ireland – we will be encouraging our members to exercise their vote for candidates who truly represent them.”



1. A Lansdowne poll at the end of 2006 commissioned by GLEN (Gay and Lesbian Equality Network) found that 84% of respondents were in support of either civil marriage of full civil partnerships for same-sex couples.

also reported on breakingnews.ie

I also got an e-mail today from a friend in the SGMHP asking people to e-mail their TD's on this issue. I think this is a good idea and shall be emailing my TD's now and will post up the e-mail and any responses I get.

Morning Briefing, 18th January

Good morning (Im too tired to think as gaeilge let alone type it!)

The news this morning!

Shilpa has spoken out about being the victim of racism on Celeb Big Brother (BBC). I think racism is an abhorrent disease in todays society and the likes of Jade Goody should be treated with distain for their carry on!

Senators, both Republican and Democratic parties, have opposed the increase of US troops in Iraq (BBC)

Heres an article on my previous post (Entertainment Weekly)

Labour seam to love confusing the electorate and the media! (Breakingnews)

The European Parliament have elected the former leader of the EPP-ED grouping, Hans-Gert Poettering, as President of the Parliament (Al Jazeera)

Interesting take on the yesterdays IMS poll

got this off a friend

I'm sure you've seen or heard about the IMS poll in the Tribune yesterday.

FF - 39
FG - 22
Lab - 12
PD - 5
Green - 5
SF - 7
Others - 10


IMS did similar polls during the 2002 general election, and their predictions were woeful. 2 days before the election they had a poll which had FF on 50% (they got 41% on the day) and had FG on 18% (we got 22.5%). This crazy margin of error seems to continue to this day and would explain why FF are so high and FG so low in IMS polls, compared to the MRBI and RedC ones.

So if you correct yesterdays poll in line with the margins of error IMS had in 2002, you get:

FF - 31%
FG - 26%
Lab - 11%
PD - 6%
SF - 8%
Green - 4%
Others - 13%

FF/PD - 37%
FG/Labour - 37%
FG/Labour/Greens - 41%

A crude way of looking at it perhaps, but it paints a very different picture - one that the Sunday Tribune dont seem to think is worth noting.

So if the Tribune, or anyone else, think that the election is over..........then they need their heads examined!

PS: If you meet any crowing FF members in the next few days- you might ask them what they think of the plunging FF support in Dublin - down from 44% to 31% in the space of 2 months. If you believe IMS, their support in Dublin is actually 4% LOWER now than it was before Ahern blubbed and sobbed about his money troubles.

Tribune poll good news for FG?

Got this from Irish Election (Yes i rob everything off them! :P)

Fianna Fail at 39% (-3) Fine Gael at 22% and Labour at 12% (+2 each). Progressive Democrats at 5% (+1), Green Party at 5% (-1) and Sinn Fein at 7% (-1)

So that gives a combined FG/Lab 34% of the vote and throw in the greens and we tie with FF who could have a choice between SF (7%) or the PD's (5%).

Nice to see that FF and SF are down though! Things are looking good, lets hope its lats :D

Election 2007

Irish election have an interesting post on the next general election. The tribune (registration required, Free Trial) have a story on the key constituencies in the election.

Over all the following is predicted:

Predicted State of the Parties:

FF: 75 (-6)

FG: 40 (+9)

Lab: 20 (-1)

Green Party: 8 (+2)

PDs: 6 (-2)

Sinn Fein: 6 (+1)

Socialists: 2 (+2)

Other: 9 (-4)

That leaves the following governmental possibilities
FF/PD/Ind
FF/SF/Ind

Fianna Fail will need 8 extra seats to get to the magic 83, but will they stick with the PD's or try it with Sinn Féin, that'll be interesting.

FG/Lab emerge with 60 seats and with the Greens on 8 it will them well short of forming a government.

For my own constituency the Tribune has this to say

Prediction: 2 FF and 1 FG (No change) Cork South-Central The transfer of Ballincollig to Cork North West will put pressure on FF to retain its three seats. However, even allowing for this, FG needs to increase its share of the vote by 10% to regain the seat lost in 2002. Effectively it will need the lion's share of Kathy Sinnott's 2002 vote. FF will have no difficulty taking two seats and FG is guaranteed one. Dan Boyle is likely to retain the Greens' seat. The last seat will be a battle between the two largest parties and determined by the transfers of Labour and the PDs. Hard to call but Fine Gael need this one badly.

and Irish Election predict:

Cork South Central - Fine Gael gain one from Fianna Fail

My prediction for Cork South Central:
***in no particular order***
- Simon Coveney (FG) Guaranteed I think after his Euro campaign
- Micheal Martin (FF) Huge popular vote
- Deirdre Clune (FG)Gaining in popularity since stint as Lord Mayor
- Dan Boyle (Green) Well known, so should do well
- Michael McGrath (FF) will pick up on transfers from Martin, Dennehy and maybe Mininhan

Dennehy (FF) wont be elected as he barely got in last year, Ciaran Lynch (lab) will do well but will get pipped at the post for the last seat I think. Minihan, personally I don't like the PD's (Sorry Sam) and I dont know many in CSC willing to vote for them. Henry Cremin (SF) will do okay, but not enough to be in contention. Jerry Buttimer (FG) will fight every tooth and nail to get in, but I cant see FG getting 3 seats.

Lets see how my prediction goes!

Saddam RIP - Reaction

Sam over at Pull Out The Pin believes that the execution of Saddam was the right thing to do. Me I don't think so. I blogged before on Capital Punishment and im still opposed to it.

CNN reported that Saddam faced the execution with fear in his face, what is the point in that? Seriously like?

Nothing gives us the right to end someone elses life so why does a fledgling 'democratic' state have that right. To me the death penalty is only used by tyrannical regimes to instil fear into a populace.

I don't see the point.

Irish Political Reaction
Fine Gael Foreign Affairs Spokesman, Bernard Allen TD, said:

"While we don't agree with execution and capital punishment, we must recognise that Saddam Hussein was a dreadful despot with the blood of tens of thousands of people on his hands and was guilty of serious war crimes both against his own people and against the Kurds.

"His execution, however, will deepen the already open wounds in Iraqi society and will inevitably lead to increased violence and bloodshed with further consequences for other parts of the Middle East."

Michael D Higgins TD, Labour Spokesperson on Foreign Affairs said:

Saddam Hussein was a brutal dictator who was responsible for appalling crimes against his own people, but it is unlikely that his execution will achieve anything other than to further fuel the cycle of violence that has taken so many lives since the illegal invasion of Iraq.



Many innocent Iraqis died at the hands of his regime; many more will die in the aftermath of his execution which came at the end of a trial process regarded by most independent observers as being deeply flawed.

The execution may bring some satisfaction to President Bush and the dwindling number of those who now support the invasion, but it will do nothing to contribute towards peace and reconciliation in Iraq.

The Labour Party is opposed to the death penalty. This is a fundamental matter of principle and applies regardless of who the accused person is or what crimes are alleged to have been committed. In this regard it is most disappointing to hear international politicians, such as the British Foreign Secretary, Margaret Becket, who oppose the death penalty in their own country, effectively welcoming the execution of Saddam.

The presentation by television companies of the events immediately before the hooded hangmen pulled the leaver as a sort of media spectacle will be repellent to most decent people. Taken together with repeated showings of film of Saddam undergoing medical examination from the time of his capture by U.S. forces, these images can only further inflame opinion in Iraq and the Middle East generally.

Via BreakingNews.ie

Ahern: We must respect Iraqi right to hang Saddam

Iraqis’ right to hang Saddam Hussein "must be respected" Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern said today.

However, he stressed Ireland was opposed to the death penalty and expressed his personal opinion that the former dictator should have died in prison.

"My view is Saddam should have spent his last years behind bars for his heinous crimes,'' he said.

The minister made his remarks as television pictures broadcast around the world showed the ex-ruler lying wrapped in a shroud, his neck sharply twisted to one side, after his execution in Baghdad earlier today.

Irish Bloggers Reaction

As i said at the start Pull Out The Pin think it was the right thing to do saying

The failure was in allowing the monster to live for so long, standing aside while he gassed the people of Halabja and committed genocide when we could have easily stopped him.

Riemanns Cut is unsure on it but does believe it was too rushed

I have no real views on Saddam Hussein. I think the execution, right or wrong, was far too rushed.

A view from the Left - Cllr Seamus Ryan's Blog also thinks the execution was wrong

Without a doubt Saddam Hussein committed terrible crimes and should have been brought to justice for his actions. The Iraqi government have now created a martyr for Hussein supporters and may live to regret this execution. It is also disturbing to see politicians who supposedly oppose the death penalty in their own country fail to condemn the execution of Saddam Hussein. The death penalty is either right or wrong. It is my belief that it is fundamentally wrong and I welcome the words of Micheal D Higgins on the matter.

Captain Purplehead believes the trial was a farce and gives a run down of doctators supported by the US!