FG Gains a Councillor

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So Cork County Councillor Deirdre Forde (Carrigaline/Harbour Electoral Area) has switched from Fianna Fail to Fine Gael. She has many reasons to do so, but the on that isn't mentioned in the Press Release is her main reason for changing.

In the PR she gives her reasons as follows:

Over the last number of months I have sensed that the current Government were moving in a direction that I was not happy with. The Budget in October was the first time that this really struck me when I saw the attempt to take the medical card off OAPs. Subsequent decisions on education supports for special needs children and the provision of cervical cancer vaccination for teenage girls confirmed for me that the wrong people were being asked to pay the price for a faltering economy.

"Having made numerous attempts to speak to senior Party figures about my concerns it became obvious to me that I was not going to be able to effect the type of change that both I, and others, would have liked to have seen.

But is that really the reason?? No.

The real reason is that Fianna Fail have selected Michéal Martin twin brother (whos name escapes me) to run in the same ward. Cllr Forde felt that he was being goven more help and support by head office then she was. This boils down to her taking these personally and then seeing what way the wind was blowing and jumping ship.

This has actual all been played out in the Cork Eveing Echo over the last few months and I was not surprised that she switched. I am surprised that it took this long! Any way best of luck to Cllr Deirdre Forde and to the other Fine Gael Candidates in that ward Cllr John Collins, Cllr Timothy Lombard, and Mr David O'Byrne.

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FG cement gains in new poll

There is a poll in the Irish Times tomorrow and I have been sent the topline figures. I assume it has been carried aout by TNS/MRB which bears out the poll in last months Sunday Business Post

Fianna Fail: 27 (-15)
Fine Gael: 34 (+11)
Labour: 14 (-1)

I'll update this with the other parties when I get the times tomorrow.

Leader satisfaction ratings show a big drop for Brian Cowen plummeting 21% to a satisfaction rating of 26%. Enda Kenny also sees a fall of 2% to 33% while Eamon Gilmore rises 3% to 38%.

Fianna Fail seams to be the big losers from the budget seeing their support drop a massive 15% with Fine Gael beeing the major benifactor. I am looking forward to seeing the numbers on the Green Party to see will they go the same way as the PD's or will people associate them with the Budget. More on this tomorrow

The Next Taoiseach of Ireland: Brian Cowen

Based on a post I orginally posted on The Political Gay over on GayCork

Tomorrow Brian Cowen will be elected Taoiseach of Ireland. The Big question will be the result of the reshuffle? Will Harney be replaced by Cannon? Who will get Finance? Who will be dropped and who will be promoted.

I have a feeling Lenihan will get Finance and Tániste. If that happens I think Coughlan could move to Justice. The poison chalice is the big Question though, if Hareny leaves Health who will take over? Cannon won't want it, if he has any sense. It will be interesting to have an Governemnt Minister in the Seanad though! It will increase its poistion within the political system.

Another question is will he drop any policies? will he try and renegiate the Programme for Government? I doubt on both of these. No Irish Government policy has major opposition in public opinion like 42 days and ID's in the UK. Of course the first month will be taken up with Lisbon, but that could be the waste of the Honeymoon period also.

What I want to know is will we see Civil Partnerships (Unions or whatever) under Cowen? Ahern was great on rhetoric but will Cowen take the action?

Random Facts:
He was born 10 January 1960 and was first elected in 1984 to represent constituency of Laois-Offaly. He has served in the following Ministries: Minister for Labour (1992–1993), Minister for Energy (1993), Minister for Transport, Energy & Communications (1993–1994), Minister for Health & Children (1997–2000), Minister for Foreign Affairs (2000–2004) and until tomorrow Minister of Finance.

He has wide ranging expeirence in a number of portfolios so has the potential to be a good Taoiseach.

The question is will he face the same problems has Gordon Brown? He is taking over from a popular Taoiseach, granted he has been dogged lately by the Tribunal, but he is popular in Ireland none the less.

He was not leader of the Party when elected. This isnt as big an issue as in the UK considering when we go to the polls you can vote for every party, as is the way with PRSTV. While in the UK you vote for one and thats the leader you expect. I dont see accusations of being 'unelected' being bandied about as much as they are with Brown.

Time will tell if he 'dithers' like Gordon. I dount he will though.

Of course he will always be BIFFO* to me dispite the fact he is Taoiseach!

*Note: I take BIFFO to mean "Big Ignorant F***er From Offaly" not "Big Intelligent Fellow From Offaly"

Notes on the the formation of the Government of the 30th Dáil

An Taoiseach: Bertie Ahern, Fianna Fail, Dublin Central.
There was no surprises when he was elected Taoiseach with a comfortable majority, 89 votes to 76. He stays on but more importantly as anointed his successor.

An Tánaiste and Minister for Finance: Brain Cowen, Fianna Fail, Laois-Offaly.
Cowen continues on in the important ministry and definitely is now seen as Bertie's replacement. If the economy does suffer, the problems will fall at his door though. Stamp Duty reform will be a major project here.

Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries & Food: Mary Coughlan, Fianna Fail, Donegal South West.
Coughlan stays where she is but also now has to represent fisheries. This will be important as the fisheries industry here is not getting a good deal here in Europe. Maybe with her experience with fighting for farmers she can do the same for our fishermen.

Minister for Arts, Sport & Tourism: Séamus Brennan, Fianna Fail, Dublin South.
Brennan takes a diagonal (downwards) from Social Welfare minister to this portfolio. Not the most exciting one! Though it could be interesting with the Olympics next year.

Minister for Communications, Energy & Natural Resources: Eamon Ryan, Green Party, Dublin South.
The first new face in this cabinet, holding quite an interesting portfolio. Damien seams happy with his appointment. This protfolio has also changed its name, marine is gone (cant have the greens in charge of that!!! ) and energy is in the title, first time we've had a ministry with that, and its great a green minister is in charge of it!

Minister for Community, Rural & Gaeltacht Affairs: Éamon Ó Cuív, FF, Galway West.
Ó Cuív stays in this post, which I have major problems with, not least the naming of Dingle/Daingean Uí Chúis.

Minister for Defence: Willie O'Dea, FF, Limerick East.
O'Dea stays here, Battle groups still a bit of an issue here, are we in or out???

Minister for Education & Science: Mary Hanafin, FF, Dún Laoghaire.
Hanafin stays at this post where LC reform and third level funding remain big issues.

Minister for Enterprise, Trade & Employment: Micheál Martin, FF, Cork South Central.
The only Cork minister, stays where he is. Encouraging employment and investment huge issues here.

Minister for the Environment, Heritage & Local Government: John Gormley, GP, Dublin South East.
Another new face at the cabinet table! Gormley is left with a major headache over the M3 though! An independent Electoral Commission is promised :D delighted along with reform of Local Government.

Minister for Foreign Affairs: Dermot Ahern, FF, Louth. Ahern stays here at Foreign Affairs where he has been a good minister, reaching ODA promises is the trick here.

Minister for Health & Children: Mary Harney, PD, Dublin Mid West.
Harney is the only PD left at the cabinet table and stays at Health. Her tenure will be shaky as she has Nurses, Consultants and Co-location to deal with.

Minister for Justice, Equality & Law Reform: Brian Lenihan Jnr, FF, Dublin West.
A promotion for Lenihan from the position of Minister of State (with special responsibility for Children). This will be a challenging portfolio to Lenihan, whos father previously held the post. Hopefully he will be a different sort of minister then McDowell and we can look forward to Civil Partnerships coming from his department.

Minister for Social & Family Affairs: Martin Cullen, FF, Waterford.
Cullen has been moved from Transport to Social Welfare. Social Welfare can be a bit of a poison chalice, if cuts have to implemented as it hurts the least well-off.

Minister for Transport & the Marine: Noel Dempsey, FF, Meath West.
Dempsey moves from communications to Transport which also gains responsibly for the Marine. This makes perfect sense as an Island nation, a lot of our transport links are by sea.

Well that is all the Ministers, John O'Donoghue beat Ruari Quinn in a vote for Ceann Comhairle. Paul Gallagher SC has been appointed Attorney General.

Edit: The Programme for Government is availible here (PDF)

Scandal that children rely on charity, not Govt, for psychological assessment - Enright

Additional allocation of €5 million for 2007 could have provided NEPS service to all schoolsFine Gael Education and Science Spokesperson Olwyn Enright TD has today (Wednesday) described the revelation that a charity has been forced to fund more than 1,000 psychological assessments for children in need as a new low for this Government.

'Today's report that the St Vincent de Paul charity has funded psychological assessments for more than 1,000 children and young people is the latest indication of the flawed commitment of this Government to the National Educational Psychological Service (NEPS), and a new low for Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats.

'One of the key duties of Minister Mary Hanafin is to ensure that children with specific educational needs or difficulties, many from disadvantaged backgrounds, are able to reach their potential within the education system. This is a duty that she has shirked since assuming office, and the consequences for children will be serious and long-felt.

'When NEPS was established in 1999, a target of 184 psychologists working within the service was set. This target was supposed to have been met by 2004, when all schools were supposed to have access to NEPS. However, the Government is still short of this target by more than 50 posts. In actual fact, figures released to me in late 2006 showed that the number of primary schools covered by the service is actually in decline.

'Between February 2005 and December 2006 the number of primary schools without access to NEPS has risen by 160. These schools have dropped off the NEPS radar due to the failure of this Government to live up to a promise made eight years ago. Today, 51% of primary schools in the State are not covered by NEPS.

'An additional allocation of €5 million for 2007, on top of the amount set aside in the estimates last November, would have allowed for all schools to be covered by the NEPS service. The revelation that charitable organisations are now picking up the slack for this Government by commissioning and paying for private psychological assessments shows that this additional allocation should have been made.

'This funding is needed now, as access to the psychological services provided by NEPS is vital for children and young people with special educational needs. Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats should be ashamed to rely on charities to provide services to those who need them, and who are entitled to assistance from the State.'


This is typical of the FF/PD government, setting up programs with great fan fare and then underfunding them! When will they cop on. These are the most vulnerable of the vulnerable, and they deserve all the hlep they can get. Thankfully in Ireland we have great charities live the SdVP who step in to fill the gap left by the government.

Come no Hanafin show your potential, and people say she will be the next leader of FF.

Negative Campaigning

Yesterday I showed my opinion on negative campaigning today breakingnews.ie have this story

US strategists hired to fight dirty election for FF and FG

Ireland's two main political parties have reportedly both hired US spin doctors to help them conduct their upcoming election campaigns.

Reports this morning say Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have hired teams of American strategists to advise them on how to secure victory.

The development is prompting fears of a negative and personalised election campaign similar to those becoming commonplace in the United States.

Yesterday, the Progressive Democrats attacked Fine Gael over a poster campaign it is planning to launch against Minister for Justice Michael McDowell.

The posters accuse the minister of presiding over a massive increase in crime while claiming that "Everything is just great".

Well its going to be a long, dirty slog!

Election 2007

Irish election have an interesting post on the next general election. The tribune (registration required, Free Trial) have a story on the key constituencies in the election.

Over all the following is predicted:

Predicted State of the Parties:

FF: 75 (-6)

FG: 40 (+9)

Lab: 20 (-1)

Green Party: 8 (+2)

PDs: 6 (-2)

Sinn Fein: 6 (+1)

Socialists: 2 (+2)

Other: 9 (-4)

That leaves the following governmental possibilities
FF/PD/Ind
FF/SF/Ind

Fianna Fail will need 8 extra seats to get to the magic 83, but will they stick with the PD's or try it with Sinn Féin, that'll be interesting.

FG/Lab emerge with 60 seats and with the Greens on 8 it will them well short of forming a government.

For my own constituency the Tribune has this to say

Prediction: 2 FF and 1 FG (No change) Cork South-Central The transfer of Ballincollig to Cork North West will put pressure on FF to retain its three seats. However, even allowing for this, FG needs to increase its share of the vote by 10% to regain the seat lost in 2002. Effectively it will need the lion's share of Kathy Sinnott's 2002 vote. FF will have no difficulty taking two seats and FG is guaranteed one. Dan Boyle is likely to retain the Greens' seat. The last seat will be a battle between the two largest parties and determined by the transfers of Labour and the PDs. Hard to call but Fine Gael need this one badly.

and Irish Election predict:

Cork South Central - Fine Gael gain one from Fianna Fail

My prediction for Cork South Central:
***in no particular order***
- Simon Coveney (FG) Guaranteed I think after his Euro campaign
- Micheal Martin (FF) Huge popular vote
- Deirdre Clune (FG)Gaining in popularity since stint as Lord Mayor
- Dan Boyle (Green) Well known, so should do well
- Michael McGrath (FF) will pick up on transfers from Martin, Dennehy and maybe Mininhan

Dennehy (FF) wont be elected as he barely got in last year, Ciaran Lynch (lab) will do well but will get pipped at the post for the last seat I think. Minihan, personally I don't like the PD's (Sorry Sam) and I dont know many in CSC willing to vote for them. Henry Cremin (SF) will do okay, but not enough to be in contention. Jerry Buttimer (FG) will fight every tooth and nail to get in, but I cant see FG getting 3 seats.

Lets see how my prediction goes!