Poll in Tomorrows Sunday Business Post

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I have been sent the results of a poll that will be published in tomorrows Sunday Business Post. The headline figures are:

Fianna Fail: 23 (-5)
Fine Gael: 30 (-3)
Labour: 22 (+8)
Greens: 6 (-2)
Sinn Fein: 11 (+2)
Independents: 8

There has also been a small change in the figures on support if the Lisbon Treaty which now show a 70-30 split in favour.

When this poll is compared with Fridays poll in the Indo, the numbers are largely similar. Fine Gael and Labour sit on the same, while Fianna Fail are lower in this poll.

The big winners in the latest opinion polls are Labour and Sinn Fein who have both increase their vote share consistently. Fine Gael, have come down in the polls marginally and seam to be hovering around the 30% mark. The Greens are starting to suffer from Collateral damage and are loosing ground in the polls. It is interesting to see if this will continue and if the party leadership will move to stem this.

The elections this year will be quite interesting if these patterns continue and looking back, I think they will.

UPDATE: I had this up ten Minutes before RTÉ sweet! :) Look at publish times (18:03 to 18:15!)

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Indo Poll Results

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There is an IMS Poll in the Indo tomorrow and the Results are quite interesting. The headline figures are: Fine Gael are on 30%, Fianna Fail are on 25%, Labour are on 22%, Greens are on 5%, Sinn Fein are on 7% and Independents are on 10%.

In terms of Government satisfaction only 10% of respondents are satisfied compared with 86% dissatisfied with the Government.

On the question of a General Election 52% of people want an election while 40% do not one.

This is the first IMS poll to show FG ahead and the 6th poll to show FG in the lead. More interesting times ahead.

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Latest Opinion Poll and a bit of a Lisbon Rant

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Its been awhile since the last poll, but RTÉ report on a poll being Published in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post.

The headline figures are:

Fine Gael 33% (-2)
Fianna Fail 28% (-2
Labour 14% (NC)
Greens 8% (+3)
Sinn Fein 9% (+1)
Ind/Others 8% (NC)

The opinion poll also asked a question on the Lisbon Treaty. 58% of people back the treaty according to the poll. 28% are against and 14% don't now.

It is strange that in a week that some leading no campaigners claimed the treaty was flawed due to a case being LODGED against the treaty in Germany that the majority in Ireland come out for in it in a poll.

Yes you read that right the lodging of a case means something is flawed according to the Peoples Movement (PDF). That is like saying that if someone is charged with a crime then they are guilty without trial! At least let Lisbon go to a hearing before passing judgement Madam McKenna. No one can predict when the Court will give a verdict, after the Maastricht case it was the day after the hearing, will it be the same for Lisbon? Will the Court the cases separately? Nobody knows but as usual the Peoples Movement try to rush in and try to misinform people again.

Anyway back to the poll, Fianna Fail remain five points behind Fine Gael while the Greens seam to be on the up and are avoiding being tainted by this Government it seams. For a change the Fianna Fail tactic of blaming the smaller party doesn't seam to be working, and they are suffering.

The results of the Local and European Elections will be very interesting this year!

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Another Week, Another Poll

Following on from the last TNS/MRBI poll, the Sunday Business Post has a Red C poll today. It is a week early to avoid a bounce from the Fine Gael National Conference this weekend. The headline figures are:

Fine Gael 35% (+2)
Fianna Fáil 30% (+4)
Labour 14% (-1)
Sinn Féin 8% (-2)
Inds 8% (no change)
Greens 5% (-1)

The poll also showed that around half of former PD voters will vote Fine Gael.

h/t: Irish Election

FG cement gains in new poll

There is a poll in the Irish Times tomorrow and I have been sent the topline figures. I assume it has been carried aout by TNS/MRB which bears out the poll in last months Sunday Business Post

Fianna Fail: 27 (-15)
Fine Gael: 34 (+11)
Labour: 14 (-1)

I'll update this with the other parties when I get the times tomorrow.

Leader satisfaction ratings show a big drop for Brian Cowen plummeting 21% to a satisfaction rating of 26%. Enda Kenny also sees a fall of 2% to 33% while Eamon Gilmore rises 3% to 38%.

Fianna Fail seams to be the big losers from the budget seeing their support drop a massive 15% with Fine Gael beeing the major benifactor. I am looking forward to seeing the numbers on the Green Party to see will they go the same way as the PD's or will people associate them with the Budget. More on this tomorrow

Another opinion poll....

This time Ireland! Its an interesting one too.

The Party Breakdown is as follows

Fianna Fail 36% (down 4)
Fine Gael 28% (up 3)
Labour 9% (down 1)
Sinn Fein 9% (down 1)
Greens 7% (no change)
PD's 3% (up 1)

(June poll available here in PDF)

In another question in the poll 50% of people are not confident that the government can get the economy out of the current downturn.

Its nice to see FG up and FF down below the 40% (the polled 42% at the last General Election), also these polls are leading us into the local and european elections next year.

The PD's being up is a bit strange considering while the poll was being carried out, the leadership decided they were not politically viable. Then again the fact the PD's were in the media a lot over the grealish debacle raised their profile. But where will that 3% go is the question on everyone's lips?

More:
RTÉ Story - Poll shows fall in support for Fianna Fáil
Sunday Business Post - Sharp fall in support for Fianna Fáil as economy slumps
Irish Election - Fianna Fail Down in Business Post Poll

If the polls are right...

Via HotAir

New York could become a Battle Ground State! Thats according to the latest Siena Poll the voting intentions were Obama 46% and McCain 41%. This is in comparison to last months poll which had Obama on 47% and McCain 39%. The gap is closing as there is less undecided voters.

New York is traditionally a Democrat state and hasn't voted Republican since 1984. Will it change to a republican this year? If NY does change to a Battle Ground State then it will force Obama to spend money there to shore up support and means it cant invest it in other Battle Ground States, this could create a new dynamic in this years election as if NY becomes a Battle Ground State then that is 31 Electoral College votes up for grabs and would make it the largest one! Currently Florida is the largest Battle Ground State with 27 electoral college votes.

It will be a fun Fall (Autumn!!!)

Poll

So I forgot to update the Poll, but the results of the poll are resoundly in favour of Obama (why do my readers disagree with me??)

Results:
Obama: 57%
Clinton: 26%
None of the Above: 15%

So the next poll is as follows:
Will Dustin Qualify for the Eurovision Final?

It will run until the 20th at 8:00pm the start time of the First Semi and will start off the Live Blogging.

Poll on the right as always!

Morning Briefing, 5th March

Good Morning,I hope no one is suffering from ill effects of superstitions linked to lunar eclipses!!! (or still suffering from hangovers from the Irish Blog Awards or whatever they got up to at the weekend!!)

An Nuachtr ar an maidin seo!

Fine Gael are to introduce a bill into the Dáil this week to outlaw the sexual "grooming" of children on the Internet. (Breakingnews) This is well overdue having been on the order paper since 2004!

A new poll out today shows 68% of those surveyed would support a ban on hare coursing with 72% agreeing its a cruel practice (RTÉ). I am against hunting in Ireland, and actually spoke against it at my very first YFG Conference way back when.

A leading psychiatrist, Professor Patricia Casey, has branded Irish psychiatric services a 'third world country' (Irish Examiner). From my own experiences shes right. I have a appointment on Thursday in the CUH, and I will be waiting a long time to be seen!

The Cherokee Nation has voted out descendants of freed slaves from the Tribe. (CNN) This has led to accusations of racism. Well in my opinion, its not exactly fair like!

That's all for now!

Slán!

Latest Poll and the Bert

Well the Bert is down in the polls. hes down 5 points in the Sunday Independent telephone poll. woo!

Though FF/PD's are up 2 points and FG/Lab are down 2 its still a long way to the elections. (Breakingnews)

And of course the government are dismissing this poll! what the hell like!!! (Breakingnews)

And the bert is helping himself he refused to answer questions on Friday in Youghal when they got too hard! The poor boy! (Irish Examiner)

Interesting take on the yesterdays IMS poll

got this off a friend

I'm sure you've seen or heard about the IMS poll in the Tribune yesterday.

FF - 39
FG - 22
Lab - 12
PD - 5
Green - 5
SF - 7
Others - 10


IMS did similar polls during the 2002 general election, and their predictions were woeful. 2 days before the election they had a poll which had FF on 50% (they got 41% on the day) and had FG on 18% (we got 22.5%). This crazy margin of error seems to continue to this day and would explain why FF are so high and FG so low in IMS polls, compared to the MRBI and RedC ones.

So if you correct yesterdays poll in line with the margins of error IMS had in 2002, you get:

FF - 31%
FG - 26%
Lab - 11%
PD - 6%
SF - 8%
Green - 4%
Others - 13%

FF/PD - 37%
FG/Labour - 37%
FG/Labour/Greens - 41%

A crude way of looking at it perhaps, but it paints a very different picture - one that the Sunday Tribune dont seem to think is worth noting.

So if the Tribune, or anyone else, think that the election is over..........then they need their heads examined!

PS: If you meet any crowing FF members in the next few days- you might ask them what they think of the plunging FF support in Dublin - down from 44% to 31% in the space of 2 months. If you believe IMS, their support in Dublin is actually 4% LOWER now than it was before Ahern blubbed and sobbed about his money troubles.

Tribune poll good news for FG?

Got this from Irish Election (Yes i rob everything off them! :P)

Fianna Fail at 39% (-3) Fine Gael at 22% and Labour at 12% (+2 each). Progressive Democrats at 5% (+1), Green Party at 5% (-1) and Sinn Fein at 7% (-1)

So that gives a combined FG/Lab 34% of the vote and throw in the greens and we tie with FF who could have a choice between SF (7%) or the PD's (5%).

Nice to see that FF and SF are down though! Things are looking good, lets hope its lats :D